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Method

Methods

How published evidence is constructed, with its scope and limitations. Methods do not carry numeric quality scores.

MethodAI Models

How is AI Capex vs. US Defense Spending constructed?

Two series: 2026 AI-capex by company, and total Big-Tech AI capex placed alongside US defense spending.

Open method
MethodLegal

How is AI Copyright Litigation constructed?

How fast copyright suits against AI companies are accumulating, and the ruling that reframed all of them.

Open method
MethodEnergy

How is AI Data-Center Electricity Demand & the Grid constructed?

Five series: global data-center electricity consumption, the AI vs non-AI share of that load, PJM capacity-auction clearing prices, the US demand-vs-capacity shortfall, and per-site power draw.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is AI Debt: How the Build-Out Is Financed constructed?

Three series: 2026 issuance by issuer, 2025 full-year versus 2026 year-to-date, and where projections land.

Open method
MethodLegal

How is AI Regulation: Bills vs Laws constructed?

US state AI bills introduced against those actually enacted — and why the two numbers tell very different stories.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is Airbus vs Boeing: The 2026 Delivery Gap constructed?

Three series: H1 2026 deliveries, H1 2026 net orders, and Airbus Q2 2026 financials.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is Airbus: 452 Aircraft in Five Months constructed?

Seven series: annual deliveries 2019–2025, the 2026 delivery arithmetic, December deliveries by year, H1 2026 deliveries by family, announced programme rate targets, backlog by family at 31 July 2026, and H1 2026 headline financials.

Open method
MethodAutomotive

How is Battery Pack Prices constructed?

Two series: the global pack price trend, and 2025 pack price by region.

Open method
MethodHealthcare

How is Biotech Venture Funding constructed?

Two series: global biotech venture funding, and biopharma-specific venture funding.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is Boeing’s Recovery, Quarter by Quarter constructed?

Six series from Boeing’s own quarterly releases: free cash flow by quarter, commercial deliveries by quarter, total company backlog, segment operating margins for Q1 vs Q2 2026, the 737 monthly rate path from the 2024 cap to the stated 52 target, and the Q2 2026 model mix.

Open method
MethodAutomotive

How is China Vehicle Exports constructed?

Two series: annual vehicle exports, and the year-on-year growth rate.

Open method
MethodReal Estate

How is Data-Centre Real Estate constructed?

Record-low vacancy, heavy preleasing and record absorption — the opposite end of commercial real estate from the office market.

Open method
MethodRetail

How is E-Commerce Share of US Retail constructed?

Two series: e-commerce share of US retail sales by Q1, and the Q1 2026 growth gap.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is eVTOL: From Letters of Intent to Binding Orders constructed?

Three series: announced order book by OEM, Eve binding orders, and stated FAA type-certification targets.

Open method
MethodAI Models

How is GLM-5.2 Benchmarks constructed?

Six series comparing GLM-5.2 to Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5, Gemini and its own predecessor GLM-5.1: long-horizon coding, standard coding, reasoning, agentic, a generational 5.2-vs-5.1 delta, and a multi-token-prediction (MTP) ablation.

Open method
MethodGeopolitical

How is Global Defence Spending constructed?

Two series: world military expenditure by year, and the largest spenders.

Open method
MethodAutomotive

How is Global EV Adoption constructed?

Two series: EV share of new car sales, and the year-on-year change in that share.

Open method
MethodAgriculture

How is Global Food Prices constructed?

Two series: the annual FAO Food Price Index level, and the year-on-year percentage change.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is Global IPO Market constructed?

Three series: global IPO proceeds, deal count, and the 2023 as-published versus as-restated comparison.

Open method
MethodEnergy

How is Global Solar Capacity constructed?

Three series: cumulative capacity, annual additions, and country share of 2024 additions.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is Gold Price Fluctuation constructed?

Four series: gold spot by year, annual returns, central-bank net gold purchases (tonnes), and forward forecasts alongside the current spot.

Open method
MethodInsurance

How is Insured Catastrophe Losses constructed?

Three series: 2024 estimates by provider, insured losses by year, and the 2025 forecast against the 2025 outcome.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is Narrowbody Deliveries: Can the Duopoly Build What It Sold? constructed?

Six series on single-aisle capacity: unfilled orders by programme at 31 July 2026, the month-on-month backlog shift, announced end-state monthly rates, the 2026 year-to-date delivery and order scorecard, June 2026 output split by body type, and GE Aerospace LEAP growth rates.

Open method
MethodEnergy

How is Nuclear Construction & the SMR Reality Check constructed?

Two series: nuclear capacity under construction, and commercial SMR capacity actually being built.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is Private Credit: A $1.2 Trillion Disagreement constructed?

Two series: current AUM estimates by provider, and 2030 projections by provider.

Open method
MethodGeopolitical

How is Shipping Chokepoints constructed?

Two series: the Suez traffic decline by measure, and Panama Canal daily transit limits.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is Six-Economy Macro Baseline constructed?

Four connected annual indicators for the United States, China, India, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan: real GDP growth, consumer-price inflation, modeled ILO unemployment, and trade as a share of GDP. Growth, inflation and unemployment run from 2019 to 2025 where published; trade is a common-year 2024 comparison.

Open method
MethodGeopolitical

How is SpaceX IPO & the Commercial Space Economy constructed?

Seven series on the SpaceX-led launch and satellite-internet market: the private-valuation ladder (with Rocket Lab as the public comparator), orbital launches per year, a dated launch-milestone log, Starlink satellites deployed per year, the Starlink subscriber S-curve, $/kg-to-LEO by vehicle, and an estimated Starlink coverage map.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is SpaceX Launch Cadence constructed?

Two series: Falcon 9 flights per calendar year, and cumulative 2026 cadence checkpoints.

Open method
MethodCryptocurrency

How is Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act constructed?

Five series: total stablecoin market cap by quarter, issuer share, transfer volume vs card networks, the GENIUS Act regulatory timeline, and reserve composition by issuer.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is The 6.5% Mortgage Era constructed?

Two series: current mortgage/borrowing rates, and 2026 home-price forecasts from major houses.

Open method
MethodAI Models

How is The Frontier AI Model Race (2026) constructed?

Four series on the 2026 frontier-model race: quarterly releases by lab, a capability-vs-cost scatter of leading models, an estimated training-compute (FLOP) trend, and an editorial safety-posture matrix across risk domains.

Open method
MethodAerospace

How is The Orbital Launch Market — and the Numbers Nobody Agrees On constructed?

Seven series: total orbital launch attempts 2020–2026, US against China by year, 2026 attempts by launching state, the four-way disagreement over China’s 2025 count, China’s 2026 target against its pace, the top five launch vehicles of 2026, and the top five launch sites. Excludes SpaceX valuation, Starlink subscribers and launch cost per kilogram — see /data/space-economy.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is UPI vs Visa & Mastercard: India’s Payments Rewiring constructed?

Eleven series: the UPI decade in volume and value, the instrument shift away from debit cards, UPI against the global card networks, merchant cost per sale, US swipe fees, the Rs 2,000 threshold, the government incentive outlay, UPI app concentration, merchant categories by value, and currency in circulation.

Open method
MethodAI Models

How is US Frontier-AI Policy Tracker constructed?

Two series: federal AI governance actions by year and type, and the frontier labs inside the August 2026 voluntary testing framework.

Open method
MethodInsurance

How is US Home Insurance Premiums constructed?

Two series: approved rate change against realised written premium, and the average annual premium level.

Open method
MethodHealthcare

How is US Hospital Margins constructed?

Two series: median operating margin, and the share of hospitals operating at a loss.

Open method
MethodFinance

How is US Inflation & the Fed constructed?

Six series telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 breakdown by category, the headline's mid-year turn, the year-end core PCE outlook before and after revision, the fed funds path from 2021, and a snapshot of current benchmark rates.

Open method
MethodReal Estate

How is US Office Vacancy constructed?

Office vacancy at successive record highs — and how far the forecast peak ran ahead of the actual.

Open method
MethodEnergy

How is US Oil & Gas Dashboard constructed?

Five series: crude (Brent) price by month, Henry Hub natural-gas price by year, US crude production by year, Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels, and the Baker Hughes rig count.

Open method
MethodCryptocurrency

How is US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows constructed?

Three series: cumulative net flows, IBIT versus the whole category, and the largest single outflow events.

Open method
MethodAI Models

How is Which Jobs AI Is Actually Hitting constructed?

Two series: AI exposure by scope (global and segment), and the fastest-growing AI-related roles.

Open method