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Analyse an A/B test

A correct read of an A/B test: lift, confidence, sample adequacy, guardrails and decision.

This is a practical, copy-paste process for a website, pricing or email test has finished.. Use it when you want a clear structure, then add your own details and the linked evidence.

Published by Deepstory Research. Reviewed Sep 2026.

How to use this method

  1. 1. Copy or downloadCopy the prompt below, or download the method file and attach it to your chat.
  2. 2. Paste into any AIChatGPT, Claude, Gemini or Copilot. Replace each [PLACEHOLDER] with your details, or let the AI ask you.
  3. 3. Add evidenceAttach the evidence files listed on this page so the AI works from sourced numbers, not guesses.

The prompt

Paste it as-is. The AI will ask for anything still in [BRACKETS].

Download .md
# Analyse an A/B test
Method by Deepstory Research: deepstoryresearch.com/method/ab-test-analysis

You are an experimentation data scientist. Follow the method below step by step. Goal: A correct read of an A/B test: lift, confidence, sample adequacy, guardrails and decision.

## My inputs
- Results: [RESULTS]  (example: visitors and conversions per variant)
- Primary metric: [PRIMARY_METRIC]  (example: checkout conversion)
- Planned duration and sample: [PLANNED_DURATION_AND_SAMPLE]  (example: 2 weeks, 20k per arm)

Before you start: if any input above is still in [BRACKETS] or missing, ask me for it in one short numbered list and wait. Do not guess. If I attached files (data, briefs, Deepstory evidence files), treat them as the primary source.

## Steps to follow
1. Check sample-ratio mismatch.
2. Compute conversion rates, absolute and relative lift.
3. Run the appropriate test and confidence interval.
4. Check guardrail metrics and segments (with caution).
5. Recommend ship / iterate / stop.

## Deliver the output in this structure
- Data checks
- Results table
- Statistical test & CI
- Guardrails
- Decision

## Quality rules
- No peeking conclusions; flag underpowered tests.
- Segment findings are hypotheses, not results.
- Label every number as FACT (with source and date), ESTIMATE (show the calculation) or ASSUMPTION.
- If a Deepstory evidence file is attached, use its figures as the reference values and cite its source references; tag claims that are not from it as [UNVERIFIED].
- End with: the 3 assumptions that matter most, what would change the answer, and the single best next step.

What you need to give the AI

InputPlaceholderExample
Results[RESULTS]visitors and conversions per variant
Primary metric[PRIMARY_METRIC]checkout conversion
Planned duration and sample[PLANNED_DURATION_AND_SAMPLE]2 weeks, 20k per arm

Use it when

  • A website, pricing or email test has finished.

What you get

  • Data checks
  • Results table
  • Statistical test & CI
  • Guardrails
  • Decision

The procedure, step by step

Read this before you run it, so you can check the AI actually followed the method.

  1. 1

    Check sample-ratio mismatch.

  2. 2

    Compute conversion rates, absolute and relative lift.

  3. 3

    Run the appropriate test and confidence interval.

  4. 4

    Check guardrail metrics and segments (with caution).

  5. 5

    Recommend ship / iterate / stop.

Quality checks built into the prompt

  • • No peeking conclusions; flag underpowered tests.
  • • Segment findings are hypotheses, not results.
  • • Every number labelled FACT, ESTIMATE or ASSUMPTION; claims outside attached evidence tagged [UNVERIFIED].

Evidence to use with this method

Methods tell the AI how to think. Evidence gives it sourced numbers to think with. Download a context file and attach it with the prompt.

EvidenceGeopolitical

Internet use ranking

Which selected economies reported the highest internet-use rates? Individuals using the Internet (% of population) · common year 2024 · 20 selected economies with published values

EvidenceGeopolitical

Income and internet use

Did higher-income selected economies also report more internet use? GDP per capita (current US$) vs Individuals using the Internet (% of population) · common year 2024 · n=20

Run next

Methods that chain well after this one.

Deepstory methods are process guidance for AI tools. Review AI output before relying on it; legal, tax, medical and investment decisions need a qualified professional.