Signals
Dated, attributed changes in evidence. Work-affecting signals appear only when a selected object materially changes.
Reviewed evidence changes
Each note is copied from reviewed index content. “Evidence as of” is the evidence date, not a claimed event timestamp.
- AI Models
AI Capex vs. US Defense Spending
2026 hyperscaler AI capex ~$675B, up ~77% YoY from ~$410B.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Energy
AI Data-Center Electricity Demand & the Grid
PJM capacity prices repricing sharply above the 2022/23 $50/MW-day base as AI load arrives.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
AI Debt: How the Build-Out Is Financed
Amazon added a $25bn package in July 2026, above the charted year-to-date figure.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
Airbus vs Boeing: The 2026 Delivery Gap
Airbus reaffirmed full-year guidance of 870 deliveries at the H1 mark.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
Airbus: 452 Aircraft in Five Months
Airbus reaffirmed ~870 deliveries, ~€7.5bn EBIT Adjusted and ~€4.5bn free cash flow with its H1 results on 29 July 2026, having delivered 418 aircraft through July. July output fell to 67 from June’s 89, and net cash dropped from €12.2bn at year-end 2025 to €8.36bn.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Automotive
Battery Pack Prices
Prices fell 8% in 2025 to $108/kWh despite rising battery-metal costs.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Healthcare
Biotech Venture Funding
Biotech venture funding recovered 28% in 2025 to about $38bn.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
Boeing’s Recovery, Quarter by Quarter
Q2 2026 was the strongest quarter of the recovery: 171 deliveries, $631m free cash flow, a record $715.3bn backlog, and the start of the 737 transition to 47 a month with the Everett North Line entering low-rate initial production in July. Defense, Space & Security moved to a (0.2)% margin in the same quarter.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Automotive
China Vehicle Exports
Growth ran at about 16% through the first ten months of 2025, the slowest rate of the series.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
eVTOL: From Letters of Intent to Binding Orders
Revo and AirX converted to firm orders in the week of 3 August 2026 — the sector's first clear LOI-to-binding shift.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- AI Models
GLM-5.2 Benchmarks
GLM-5.2 table (2026-06-16) shows near-parity on coding/agentic; reasoning still trails.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Geopolitical
Global Defence Spending
2025 marked an eleventh consecutive annual rise, with the burden at 2.5% of GDP.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Automotive
Global EV Adoption
Share growth re-accelerated to +4pp in 2025 after two slower years.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Agriculture
Global Food Prices
The index rose 4.3% in 2025 to 127.2, breaking two consecutive years of decline.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
Global IPO Market
Proceeds recovered 39% in 2025 to $171.8bn on an essentially flat deal count.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Energy
Global Solar Capacity
Cumulative capacity reached about 2,800 GW in 2025, roughly 70% above 2023.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
Gold Price Fluctuation
Spot ~$4,186/oz on Jun 22 2026 — a fresh high against the 2020 ~$1,770 base.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Insurance
Insured Catastrophe Losses
2025 insured losses came in at $107bn against a $145bn projection.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
Narrowbody Deliveries: Can the Duopoly Build What It Sold?
Boeing began transitioning the 737 line from 42 to 47 aircraft a month during Q2 2026 and activated low-rate initial production on the 737 North Line at Everett in July 2026. Over the same month the A320neo backlog grew 113 aircraft while the 737 backlog fell 37.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Energy
Nuclear Construction & the SMR Reality Check
2025 saw ten construction starts totalling 12.2 GW, nine of them in China.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
Private Credit: A $1.2 Trillion Disagreement
Preqin and AIMA published current-AUM estimates $1.2tn apart for the same year.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Geopolitical
Shipping Chokepoints
Panama transits recovered 25% year on year between October 2024 and January 2025 while Suez remained depressed.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
Six-Economy Macro Baseline
The World Bank API response updated 2026-07-13 adds a common 2025 endpoint for real GDP growth and modeled unemployment across all six economies; the US 2025 CPI observation remains unavailable in this query.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Geopolitical
SpaceX IPO & the Commercial Space Economy
2026 added the ~$1.75T IPO target (confidential S-1, Apr 2026) and Rocket Lab's ~$68.8B Jun-2026 market cap.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
SpaceX Launch Cadence
The 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026 launched from Vandenberg on 4 August with 24 Starlink satellites.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Cryptocurrency
Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act
GENIUS Act (enacted Jul 18 2025) now governs issuers; Tether attests ~80% Treasury backing (Q4 2025).
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
The 6.5% Mortgage Era
30-year fixed at 6.55% (Jul 16 2026); price forecasts still positive (~+4% NAR).
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- AI Models
The Frontier AI Model Race (2026)
2026 snapshot: an Opus-class model tops the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (~62) at ~$25/M output tokens.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Aerospace
The Orbital Launch Market — and the Numbers Nobody Agrees On
Through 30 July 2026 the world recorded 180 orbital launch attempts, 88 of them Falcon 9. China had flown 53 against a stated target of 140 or more for the year. Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral were level at 49 launches each.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
UPI vs Visa & Mastercard: India’s Payments Rewiring
The Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026 creates the legal framework for MDR on UPI. No rate has been notified. Reported proposals centre on 0.25–0.5% on P2M above Rs 2,000 with a small-merchant exemption.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- AI Models
US Frontier-AI Policy Tracker
The voluntary model-testing framework was reviewed at the White House on 4 August 2026 with OpenAI, Anthropic and Google attending.
Attribution: Reputable secondary. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Healthcare
US Hospital Margins
The 2024 recovery to 4.9% reversed to 1.3% on a 2025 adjusted year-to-date basis.
Attribution: Official body or company filing. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Finance
US Inflation & the Fed
June 2026: a fourth consecutive FOMC hold at a 3.75% upper bound, with headline CPI turning down from its 4.2% May peak while the year-end core PCE outlook was raised to 3.4%.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Energy
US Oil & Gas Dashboard
June 2026: SPR at its lowest since 1983; oil-directed rig count 433; Brent elevated after the Q1 spike.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- Cryptocurrency
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
Cumulative category flows have flattened while IBIT continues to take in money, deepening the gap.
Attribution: Aggregator / vendor. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
- AI Models
Which Jobs AI Is Actually Hitting
AI/ML role postings ~+143% YoY against a ~40% global exposure backdrop.
Attribution: Government / regulator. Exact sources and retrieval context are published in the linked Evidence Brief.
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