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EvidenceFinanceData as of 2025

Decision question

How did six major economies diverge after the pandemic shock?

Six-Economy Macro Baseline

Answer capsule

The post-pandemic macro picture is not one cycle. In 2025 India grew 7.57% while Germany grew 0.24%; China’s CPI inflation was 0.06% while the United Kingdom’s was 3.88%; and modeled unemployment ranged from 2.45% in Japan to 4.75% in the United Kingdom. External exposure is also structurally different: in the latest common year, 2024, trade equaled 79.09% of German GDP against 25.02% in the United States (world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth / world-bank-wdi-inflation / world-bank-wdi-unemployment / world-bank-wdi-trade).

Read the evidence

What this can answer

Four connected annual indicators for the United States, China, India, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan: real GDP growth, consumer-price inflation, modeled ILO unemployment, and trade as a share of GDP. Growth, inflation and unemployment run from 2019 to 2025 where published; trade is a common-year 2024 comparison.

What this cannot answer

  • Quarterly turning points or conditions after the annual observations.
  • A forecast for growth, inflation, unemployment or trade.
  • Country-specific CPI basket differences, labor participation, wage growth or underemployment.

India led the 2025 comparison at 7.57%; Germany moved back above zero at 0.24% after contractions in 2023 and 2024.

  • Data as of 2025
  • Source Government / regulator
Caveat

Recent national-accounts observations can be revised. This is a WDI historical series, not a forecast.

Full methodology & sources →

India led 2025 growth while Germany barely expanded

India led 2025 growth while Germany barely expanded

The six economies entered the pandemic from very different baselines and exited it at different speeds. India recorded 7.57% real GDP growth in 2025, China 4.96%, the United States 2.16%, the United Kingdom 1.39%, Japan 1.19%, and Germany 0.24%. This is an orientation baseline for macro, market-entry and country-risk work—not a forecast. National-account revisions can change recent observations, so users should cite the API update date and refresh before a consequential decision.

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India led 2025 growth while Germany barely expanded

Rendering the interactive chart

Source: world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth · Retrieved 2026-09-13T09:40:29.166+00:00 · Basis: actual values

Unknown values are hatched and never treated as zero. Zero remains a verified value.

The 2022 inflation shock split into sharply different cooldown paths

The 2022 inflation shock split into sharply different cooldown paths

Inflation peaked at different times and cooled at different speeds. In 2025 China was near zero at 0.06%, while the United Kingdom remained at 3.88%, Japan at 3.17%, India at 2.40%, and Germany at 2.17%. The World Bank API did not publish a US 2025 value in the retrieved response, so the cell is absent rather than estimated. Cross-country CPI methods and consumption baskets differ; compare direction and scale, not false decimal precision.

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The 2022 inflation shock split into sharply different cooldown paths

Rendering the interactive chart

Source: world-bank-wdi-inflation · Retrieved 2026-09-13T09:40:29.166+00:00 · Basis: actual values

1 unavailable observation kept as gaps. 2025 / usa: not disclosed

Unknown values are hatched and never treated as zero. Zero remains a verified value.

The pandemic labor shock faded, but US and UK unemployment rose again by 2025

The pandemic labor shock faded, but US and UK unemployment rose again by 2025

The modeled series makes the pandemic break and subsequent normalization comparable across countries. By 2025 the United States was at 4.20% and the United Kingdom at 4.75%, both above their 2023 readings, while India had fallen from 7.86% in 2020 to 4.22%. These are modeled ILO estimates, not each country’s headline national series, and should not be mixed with national-definition unemployment without reconciliation.

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The pandemic labor shock faded, but US and UK unemployment rose again by 2025

Rendering the interactive chart

Source: world-bank-wdi-unemployment · Retrieved 2026-09-13T09:40:29.166+00:00 · Basis: actual values

Unknown values are hatched and never treated as zero. Zero remains a verified value.

Germany remained more than three times as trade-exposed as the United States

Germany remained more than three times as trade-exposed as the United States

Using a common 2024 observation avoids silently mixing release years. Germany’s trade ratio was 79.09% of GDP, versus 62.84% for the United Kingdom, 45.92% for India, 44.85% for Japan, 37.96% for China, and 25.02% for the United States. The ratio measures openness and external exposure, not the trade balance: exports and imports are added, not netted.

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Germany remained more than three times as trade-exposed as the United States

Rendering the interactive chart

Source: world-bank-wdi-trade · Retrieved 2026-09-13T09:40:29.166+00:00 · Basis: actual values

Unknown values are hatched and never treated as zero. Zero remains a verified value.

Data table

Download CSV
Six-Economy Macro Baseline — full data table
ukusayearchinaindiajapanseriesgermanysource_refvalue_basiscountrypct_gdp
1.262.5820196.073.87-0.31gdp_growth0.98world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
-10.05-2.0820202.34-5.78-4.28gdp_growth-4.13world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
8.546.1520218.579.693.56gdp_growth3.91world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
5.152.5220223.137.611.33gdp_growth1.81world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
0.272.9320235.427.210.72gdp_growth-0.87world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
1.082.7920244.967.1-0.24gdp_growth-0.5world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2024; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
1.392.1620254.967.571.19gdp_growth0.24world-bank-wdi-gdp-growthWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2025; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
1.741.8120192.93.730.47inflation1.45world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
0.991.2320202.426.62-0.02inflation0.14world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
2.524.720210.985.13-0.23inflation3.07world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
7.92820221.976.72.5inflation6.87world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
6.794.1220230.235.653.27inflation5.95world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
3.272.9520240.224.952.74inflation2.26world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2024; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
3.8820250.062.43.17inflation2.17world-bank-wdi-inflationWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2025; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
3.663.6720194.566.512.35unemployment3.16world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
4.478.06202057.862.81unemployment3.88world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
4.865.3520214.556.382.81unemployment3.59world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
3.773.6520224.984.822.61unemployment3.14world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
4.033.6420234.674.172.6unemployment3.07world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
4.364.0220244.594.172.5unemployment3.4world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2024; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
4.754.220254.624.222.45unemployment3.71world-bank-wdi-unemploymentWorld Bank WDI annual observation for 2025; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet.
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.Germany79.09
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.United Kingdom62.84
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.India45.92
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.Japan44.85
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.China37.96
trade_exposureworld-bank-wdi-tradeWorld Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals.United States25.02

Methodology & sources

Last updated: Sep 13, 2026

Methodology

This index answers one question: how have six systemically important economies diverged since 2019 across growth, prices, labor and external exposure? It is designed for a macro-risk briefing, market-entry memo or country-comparison slide—not for investment advice or forecasting. SOURCE. Every value comes from the World Bank Indicators API v2, source 2 (World Development Indicators), retrieved 2026-09-10. The API reported lastupdated=2026-07-13. Unemployment is the modeled ILO estimate distributed through WDI; it is not a country headline series. TRANSFORMATION. Display values are rounded to two decimals. The exact unrounded API values, query URLs, definitions and retrieval metadata are preserved in Topics_Content/data/batch-8_global-macro-baseline_2026-09-10.md. MISSING VALUE. The retrieved WDI response has no US CPI observation for 2025. It is omitted; no estimate or carry-forward value is substituted. COMPARABILITY. GDP growth and CPI are harmonized annual indicators but national revisions, baskets and accounting practices still differ. The trade chart uses 2024—the latest common year for all six economies— rather than mixing release years. Trade is exports plus imports as a share of GDP; it does not measure the trade balance. SELECTION. The six economies are an editorial comparison set chosen for global decision relevance, not a ranking. The index does not claim they represent every region or income group. Collected 2026-09-10 and re-fetched in a separate verification pass the same day. No value that failed to reappear was retained.

Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.

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