Where 2026 Inflation Actually Is
US headline CPI peaked in spring 2026 and fell in June — but the Fed’s preferred core gauge is still being revised up on an energy and fertilizer supply shock. The two charts tell opposite halves of the story.
Year-over-year %. Headline inflation peaked in spring, then fell in June — but the relief is energy-led and may not last.
View data & sources →Core PCE, year-end 2026 forecast (%). Even as headline CPI eased, the Fed's preferred gauge was revised UP on the Strait of Hormuz energy and fertilizer shock.
View data & sources →Data table
| month | series | headline | source_ref | value_basis | pct | label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.3 | bls-cpi | March 2026 CPI +3.3% YoY | ||
| Apr 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.8 | bls-cpi | April 2026 CPI +3.8% YoY | ||
| May 2026 | cpi_turn | 4.2 | marketplace-june-cpi | May 2026 CPI +4.2% YoY (spring peak) | ||
| Jun 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.5 | marketplace-june-cpi | June 2026 CPI eased to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May | ||
| core_pce_outlook | jpm-outlook | Prior year-end 2026 core PCE outlook ~2.9% | 2.9 | Core PCE outlook (prior) |
1 more row + CSV download
The full 6-row dataset, one-click CSV export, and the AI-ready context file are free with an account. Prefer to verify it yourself? The full methodology and sources are published below.
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Two source-backed charts: the headline CPI path (YoY %, March→June 2026) and the year-end core PCE outlook, prior vs revised. Each point carries a sources[].ref and value_basis. The May peak (4.2%) and June cooldown (3.5%) trace to Marketplace’s June CPI reporting; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. CAVEAT: headline and core are different gauges (CPI vs PCE) and are charted separately by design — the divergence is the point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.
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