Headline CPI: the mid-2026 turn
Year-over-year %, spring into summer 2026.
About this data
Headline CPI climbed to a spring peak of 4.2% in May 2026 before easing to 3.5% in June — the first monthly cooldown after three straight increases. The relief is largely energy-led as the oil shock faded, which is why economists caution it may not hold if the underlying pressures persist.
Year-over-year %. Headline inflation peaked in spring, then fell in June — but the relief is energy-led and may not last.
View data & sources →Data table
| month | series | headline | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.3 | bls-cpi | March 2026 CPI +3.3% YoY |
| Apr 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.8 | bls-cpi | April 2026 CPI +3.8% YoY |
| May 2026 | cpi_turn | 4.2 | marketplace-june-cpi | May 2026 CPI +4.2% YoY (spring peak) |
| Jun 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.5 | marketplace-june-cpi | June 2026 CPI eased to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Two source-backed charts: the headline CPI path (YoY %, March→June 2026) and the year-end core PCE outlook, prior vs revised. Each point carries a sources[].ref and value_basis. The May peak (4.2%) and June cooldown (3.5%) trace to Marketplace’s June CPI reporting; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. CAVEAT: headline and core are different gauges (CPI vs PCE) and are charted separately by design — the divergence is the point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.