The core-inflation outlook is still rising
Core PCE year-end 2026 forecast, %.
About this data
Even as headline CPI eased, the year-end core PCE outlook — the Fed’s preferred gauge — was revised up from 2.9% to 3.4%, driven by a supply shock in oil, gas, fertilizer and helium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. That divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the central tension the Fed faces in the back half of 2026.
Core PCE, year-end 2026 forecast (%). Even as headline CPI eased, the Fed's preferred gauge was revised UP on the Strait of Hormuz energy and fertilizer shock.
View data & sources →Data table
| pct | label | series | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | Core PCE outlook (prior) | core_pce_outlook | jpm-outlook | Prior year-end 2026 core PCE outlook ~2.9% |
| 3.4 | Core PCE outlook (revised) | core_pce_outlook | jpm-outlook | Year-end 2026 core PCE outlook raised to 3.4% on Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium supply shock |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Two source-backed charts: the headline CPI path (YoY %, March→June 2026) and the year-end core PCE outlook, prior vs revised. Each point carries a sources[].ref and value_basis. The May peak (4.2%) and June cooldown (3.5%) trace to Marketplace’s June CPI reporting; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. CAVEAT: headline and core are different gauges (CPI vs PCE) and are charted separately by design — the divergence is the point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.