---
title: "Six-Economy Macro Baseline"
slug: global-macro-baseline
type: data-index
sector: finance
canonical_url: https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/global-macro-baseline
series: [gdp_growth, inflation, unemployment, trade_exposure]
series_count: 4
data_point_count: 27
data_as_of: 2025
source_quality: curated_snapshot
tier: free
generated_at: 2026-09-10
---

# Six-Economy Macro Baseline
_How did six major economies diverge after the pandemic shock?_

> Deepstory Research context file · **Free tier** · <https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/global-macro-baseline>
> Self-contained AI briefing. Drop into an LLM window or RAG pipeline.

## AI research use contract

- Treat this file as source-grounded context, not a live database. Quote `source_ref` and `data_as_of` when using numbers.
- Separate `FACT`, `ESTIMATE`, `FORECAST`, `TARGET`, and `INFERENCE`. If a row basis is unclear, say it is unclear.
- Prefer T1/T2 sources for hard facts; use T3/T4 sources as context that should be checked before money, legal, medical, operational, or policy decisions.
- Keep answer structure clean: first say what the data says, then what you infer, then what would change the conclusion.

## Research upgrade checklist

- Refresh all four API calls together so the comparison keeps one retrieval date.
- Keep the US 2025 CPI cell empty until WDI publishes it; never carry 2024 forward.
- Use a common year for the trade comparison rather than mixing most-recent observations.
- Keep modeled ILO unemployment separate from national headline series.
- Check recent GDP and CPI observations for revisions before consequential use.

## TL;DR — index summary

The post-pandemic macro picture is not one cycle. In 2025 India grew 7.57% while Germany grew 0.24%; China’s CPI inflation was 0.06% while the United Kingdom’s was 3.88%; and modeled unemployment ranged from 2.45% in Japan to 4.75% in the United Kingdom. External exposure is also structurally different: in the latest common year, 2024, trade equaled 79.09% of German GDP against 25.02% in the United States (world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth / world-bank-wdi-inflation / world-bank-wdi-unemployment / world-bank-wdi-trade).

## What this index covers

Four connected annual indicators for the United States, China, India, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan: real GDP growth, consumer-price inflation, modeled ILO unemployment, and trade as a share of GDP. Growth, inflation and unemployment run from 2019 to 2025 where published; trade is a common-year 2024 comparison.

**Series in this index:**

- `gdp_growth` — Annual real growth across the six economies before, during and after the pandemic shock.
- `inflation` — How differently the 2022 price shock unwound across the six economies.
- `unemployment` — A harmonized view of labor-market slack before and after the 2020 shock.
- `trade_exposure` — How large exports plus imports are relative to each economy.

**Entities tracked:** United States, China, India, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan; World Bank World Development Indicators; ILOEST.

## Key findings

- Real GDP growth in 2025 ranged from 7.57% in India to 0.24% in Germany; China was 4.96%, the United States 2.16%, the United Kingdom 1.39% and Japan 1.19% (world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth).
- The 2025 CPI series ranged from 0.06% in China to 3.88% in the United Kingdom; the US observation was not published in the retrieved API response and is omitted (world-bank-wdi-inflation).
- India’s modeled unemployment fell from 7.86% in 2020 to 4.22% in 2025, while the United States moved from 3.64% in 2023 to 4.20% in 2025 (world-bank-wdi-unemployment).
- Trade equaled 79.09% of German GDP in 2024, compared with 62.84% in the United Kingdom, 45.92% in India, 44.85% in Japan, 37.96% in China and 25.02% in the United States (world-bank-wdi-trade).

## Evidence basis map

The free tables above show `source_ref` but not the row-level `value_basis`. This section mirrors the visible rows only, so AI tools can separate observed values from estimates, forecasts, targets, and derived values.

| series | row | source_ref | value_basis |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| gdp_growth | year=2019; usa=2.58; china=6.07; india=3.87; germany=0.98; uk=1.26; japan=-0.31 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| gdp_growth | year=2020; usa=-2.08; china=2.34; india=-5.78; germany=-4.13; uk=-10.05; japan=-4.28 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| gdp_growth | year=2021; usa=6.15; china=8.57; india=9.69; germany=3.91; uk=8.54; japan=3.56 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| gdp_growth | year=2022; usa=2.52; china=3.13; india=7.61; germany=1.81; uk=5.15; japan=1.33 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| gdp_growth | year=2023; usa=2.93; china=5.42; india=7.21; germany=-0.87; uk=0.27; japan=0.72 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| inflation | year=2019; usa=1.81; china=2.9; india=3.73; germany=1.45; uk=1.74; japan=0.47 | world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| inflation | year=2020; usa=1.23; china=2.42; india=6.62; germany=0.14; uk=0.99; japan=-0.02 | world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| inflation | year=2021; usa=4.7; china=0.98; india=5.13; germany=3.07; uk=2.52; japan=-0.23 | world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| inflation | year=2022; usa=8; china=1.97; india=6.7; germany=6.87; uk=7.92; japan=2.5 | world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| inflation | year=2023; usa=4.12; china=0.23; india=5.65; germany=5.95; uk=6.79; japan=3.27 | world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| unemployment | year=2019; usa=3.67; china=4.56; india=6.51; germany=3.16; uk=3.66; japan=2.35 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2019; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| unemployment | year=2020; usa=8.06; china=5; india=7.86; germany=3.88; uk=4.47; japan=2.81 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2020; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| unemployment | year=2021; usa=5.35; china=4.55; india=6.38; germany=3.59; uk=4.86; japan=2.81 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2021; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| unemployment | year=2022; usa=3.65; china=4.98; india=4.82; germany=3.14; uk=3.77; japan=2.61 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2022; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| unemployment | year=2023; usa=3.64; china=4.67; india=4.17; germany=3.07; uk=4.03; japan=2.6 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI annual observation for 2023; API response last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Display values rounded to two decimals; unrounded values are retained in the batch working sheet. |
| trade_exposure | country=Germany; pct_gdp=79.09 | world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals. |
| trade_exposure | country=United Kingdom; pct_gdp=62.84 | world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals. |
| trade_exposure | country=India; pct_gdp=45.92 | world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals. |
| trade_exposure | country=Japan; pct_gdp=44.85 | world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals. |
| trade_exposure | country=China; pct_gdp=37.96 | world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI 2024 annual observation; API last updated 2026-07-13, retrieved and independently re-verified 2026-09-10. Rounded to two decimals. |

## The series (per-chart briefings)

### Real GDP growth — line
**Direct answer:** Annual real growth across the six economies before, during and after the pandemic shock.
**Time bracket:** annual, 2019–2025

| year | usa | china | india | germany | uk | japan | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2019 | 2.58 | 6.07 | 3.87 | 0.98 | 1.26 | -0.31 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth |
| 2020 | -2.08 | 2.34 | -5.78 | -4.13 | -10.05 | -4.28 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth |
| 2021 | 6.15 | 8.57 | 9.69 | 3.91 | 8.54 | 3.56 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth |
| 2022 | 2.52 | 3.13 | 7.61 | 1.81 | 5.15 | 1.33 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth |
| 2023 | 2.93 | 5.42 | 7.21 | -0.87 | 0.27 | 0.72 | world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth |

_+2 more rows on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** India led the 2025 comparison at 7.57%; Germany moved back above zero at 0.24% after contractions in 2023 and 2024.
**Caveat:** Recent national-accounts observations can be revised. This is a WDI historical series, not a forecast.

### Consumer-price inflation — line
**Direct answer:** How differently the 2022 price shock unwound across the six economies.
**Time bracket:** annual, 2019–2025 where published

| year | usa | china | india | germany | uk | japan | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2019 | 1.81 | 2.9 | 3.73 | 1.45 | 1.74 | 0.47 | world-bank-wdi-inflation |
| 2020 | 1.23 | 2.42 | 6.62 | 0.14 | 0.99 | -0.02 | world-bank-wdi-inflation |
| 2021 | 4.7 | 0.98 | 5.13 | 3.07 | 2.52 | -0.23 | world-bank-wdi-inflation |
| 2022 | 8 | 1.97 | 6.7 | 6.87 | 7.92 | 2.5 | world-bank-wdi-inflation |
| 2023 | 4.12 | 0.23 | 5.65 | 5.95 | 6.79 | 3.27 | world-bank-wdi-inflation |

_+2 more rows on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** China was near zero in 2025 while UK and Japan inflation remained above 3%.
**Caveat:** The US 2025 observation is absent from the retrieved API response and is omitted. National CPI baskets differ.

### Modeled unemployment — line
**Direct answer:** A harmonized view of labor-market slack before and after the 2020 shock.
**Time bracket:** annual, 2019–2025

| year | usa | china | india | germany | uk | japan | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2019 | 3.67 | 4.56 | 6.51 | 3.16 | 3.66 | 2.35 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment |
| 2020 | 8.06 | 5 | 7.86 | 3.88 | 4.47 | 2.81 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment |
| 2021 | 5.35 | 4.55 | 6.38 | 3.59 | 4.86 | 2.81 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment |
| 2022 | 3.65 | 4.98 | 4.82 | 3.14 | 3.77 | 2.61 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment |
| 2023 | 3.64 | 4.67 | 4.17 | 3.07 | 4.03 | 2.6 | world-bank-wdi-unemployment |

_+2 more rows on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** The pandemic spike faded, but US and UK modeled unemployment rose between 2023 and 2025.
**Caveat:** Modeled ILO estimates are designed for comparability and may differ from national headline releases.

### Trade exposure — hbar
**Direct answer:** How large exports plus imports are relative to each economy.
**Time bracket:** common-year snapshot, 2024

| country | pct_gdp | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Germany | 79.09 | world-bank-wdi-trade |
| United Kingdom | 62.84 | world-bank-wdi-trade |
| India | 45.92 | world-bank-wdi-trade |
| Japan | 44.85 | world-bank-wdi-trade |
| China | 37.96 | world-bank-wdi-trade |

_+1 more row on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** Germany’s 79.09% ratio was more than three times the US ratio of 25.02%.
**Caveat:** Trade share measures openness, not balance or resilience. Exports and imports are added, not netted.

## Cross-series synthesis — why this matters

Growth and inflation must be read together. India combined the strongest 2025 growth with 2.40% inflation, while Germany paired near-zero growth with 2.17% inflation. China’s 4.96% growth beside 0.06% inflation describes a different demand environment again.

Trade exposure changes how an external shock reaches each economy. Germany and the United Kingdom have far larger trade-to-GDP ratios than the United States, so an identical cross-border disruption is not an identical macro input.

The unemployment series is a guardrail against reading GDP alone. By 2025 US growth remained above Germany, the UK and Japan, yet its modeled unemployment rate had risen from the 2023 trough.

## Entities & relationships

| Entity | What they do | Key stat | Relationship |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| World Bank WDI | API distributor and harmonized indicator catalogue | API response updated 2026-07-13 | Provides all four recurring series and metadata |
| ILOSTAT / ILOEST | Underlying modeled unemployment source | 2019–2025 observations used | Makes the labor comparison more consistent than mixing national series |
| Six-economy set | Editorial comparison cohort | US, China, India, Germany, UK, Japan | Chosen for decision relevance, not as a complete global sample |

## Timeline of key events & decisions

- **2019** — Pre-pandemic comparison anchor → sets the baseline before the shared shock
- **2020** — Growth and labor-market break → the largest common discontinuity in the series
- **2022** — Inflation peak across several economies → the price shock that later cooldown paths diverge from
- **2024** — Latest common trade-share observation → keeps the structural comparison on one year
- **2025** — Latest year for growth and modeled unemployment across all six → the current common endpoint for most series

## Cross-industry ripple

- **Market entry:** Growth, inflation and trade exposure provide a first-pass screen before sector-level demand and regulatory research. _(inference)_
- **Supply-chain risk:** Higher trade-to-GDP ratios can increase sensitivity to cross-border demand and logistics shocks, but do not measure resilience by themselves. _(inference)_
- **Workforce planning:** Modeled unemployment adds labor context to a growth comparison, but wage, skill and participation data are still required. _(inference)_

## Non-obvious reads (interpretation)

_This section is interpretation, not sourced fact — each item names the observation it is built on and a confidence level._

- **Observation:** India had the highest 2025 growth in the set and Germany the lowest, while their CPI rates were both close to 2%.
  **Read:** Similar inflation does not imply similar demand momentum; a workspace that filters countries on inflation alone can pair fundamentally different operating environments. _(confidence: high)_
- **Observation:** Germany’s 2024 trade ratio was 79.09% versus 25.02% in the United States.
  **Read:** A global shock scenario should not apply one external-demand sensitivity across these economies. The index identifies the need for different assumptions; it does not provide those elasticities. _(confidence: high)_

## Glossary / key terms

- **Real GDP growth** — Annual percentage change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product.
- **CPI inflation** — Annual percentage change in a national consumer-price index; baskets and methods vary.
- **Modeled ILO estimate** — An ILO harmonized estimate intended for cross-country comparison, distinct from a national headline release.
- **Trade as % of GDP** — Exports plus imports of goods and services divided by GDP; not the net trade balance.

## How to use this with AI

Paste this file into an LLM context window (or a RAG store) and ask cross-series questions. The tables carry a `source_ref` per row; the source registry below maps each ref to a named source and a trust tier.

### Suggested prompts (multi-series)

```text
Build a six-country macro comparison for a market-entry memo using all four series. Cite source_ref and state the common data year for each comparison.
```

```text
Compare India, China and Germany on 2025 growth and inflation, then identify what additional sector data is needed before making a demand forecast.
```

```text
Use trade_exposure to rank external exposure in 2024, but explain why the ratio cannot by itself predict supply-chain resilience.
```

```text
Identify every missing or non-comparable value in this file and explain how you would handle it in a board slide.
```

## Sources & trust

| ref | source | trust tier | url |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| world-bank-wdi-gdp-growth | World Bank WDI API — GDP growth (annual %), NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG | T1 · Government / regulator / central bank | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA%3BCHN%3BIND%3BDEU%3BGBR%3BJPN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&date=2019%3A2025&per_page=1000&source=2 |
| world-bank-wdi-inflation | World Bank WDI API — Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG | T1 · Government / regulator / central bank | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA%3BCHN%3BIND%3BDEU%3BGBR%3BJPN/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?format=json&date=2019%3A2025&per_page=1000&source=2 |
| world-bank-wdi-unemployment | World Bank WDI API / ILOEST — Unemployment, total (modeled ILO estimate), SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS | T1 · Government / regulator / central bank | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA%3BCHN%3BIND%3BDEU%3BGBR%3BJPN/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?format=json&date=2019%3A2025&per_page=1000&source=2 |
| world-bank-wdi-trade | World Bank WDI API — Trade (% of GDP), NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS | T1 · Government / regulator / central bank | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA%3BCHN%3BIND%3BDEU%3BGBR%3BJPN/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?format=json&date=2024&per_page=1000&source=2 |

## Caveats & what this index cannot answer

- Quarterly turning points or conditions after the annual observations.
- A forecast for growth, inflation, unemployment or trade.
- Country-specific CPI basket differences, labor participation, wage growth or underemployment.
- Trade balance, bilateral partner exposure, product mix or supply-chain resilience.
- Regional and income-group coverage beyond the six selected economies.
- Estimates and forward targets are labelled in the working dataset; never read a labelled estimate or forecast as a settled figure.
- This is an observational data index, not investment, legal, or medical advice.

## Data freshness & methodology

- **Last updated:** 2026-09-10
- **Data as of:** 2025
- **What changed most recently:** The World Bank API response updated 2026-07-13 adds a common 2025 endpoint for real GDP growth and modeled unemployment across all six economies; the US 2025 CPI observation remains unavailable in this query.

**Methodology (as seeded):**

> This index answers one question: how have six systemically important
> economies diverged since 2019 across growth, prices, labor and external
> exposure? It is designed for a macro-risk briefing, market-entry memo or
> country-comparison slide—not for investment advice or forecasting.
> 
> SOURCE. Every value comes from the World Bank Indicators API v2, source
> 2 (World Development Indicators), retrieved 2026-09-10. The API reported
> lastupdated=2026-07-13. Unemployment is the modeled ILO estimate
> distributed through WDI; it is not a country headline series.
> 
> TRANSFORMATION. Display values are rounded to two decimals. The exact
> unrounded API values, query URLs, definitions and retrieval metadata are
> preserved in Topics_Content/data/batch-8_global-macro-baseline_2026-09-10.md.
> 
> MISSING VALUE. The retrieved WDI response has no US CPI observation for
> 2025. It is omitted; no estimate or carry-forward value is substituted.
> 
> COMPARABILITY. GDP growth and CPI are harmonized annual indicators but
> national revisions, baskets and accounting practices still differ.
> The trade chart uses 2024—the latest common year for all six economies—
> rather than mixing release years. Trade is exports plus imports as a
> share of GDP; it does not measure the trade balance.
> 
> SELECTION. The six economies are an editorial comparison set chosen for
> global decision relevance, not a ranking. The index does not claim they
> represent every region or income group.
> 
> Collected 2026-09-10 and re-fetched in a separate verification pass the
> same day. No value that failed to reappear was retained.

---

_Free tier. The full row-level dataset and per-source detail live on the live page and in the working file. Canonical: <https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/global-macro-baseline>. Deepstory Research · https://deepstoryresearch.com_