How is US Inflation & the Fed constructed?
Published by Deepstory Research as the methodology attached to US Inflation & the Fed. Scope and source attribution are bounded by that Evidence Brief.
Procedure and scope
Six source-backed charts telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 CPI breakdown by category, the headline CPI’s mid-year turn (spring peak into the June cooldown), the year-end core PCE outlook (prior vs revised), the year-end fed funds target path (2021 → 2026), and a snapshot of current US benchmark rates. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. CPI figures are BLS releases as reported by CNBC/Marketplace for each month; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. The fed-funds rate path is from the Federal Reserve’s published FOMC history; the June 2026 hold (range 3.50–3.75%) is the fourth consecutive hold under Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage are dated snapshots (mid/late June 2026). CAVEAT: headline CPI and core PCE are different gauges, charted separately by design — the divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the point. The Feb 2026 CPI point shows headline only (core for that month was not in the cited reporting). Fed-funds points use the midpoint of the target range. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Known failure modes and limits
- Forward FOMC decisions (this index shows the printed path, not projections).
- Whether the core PCE revision will prove correct (both outlook bars are labelled forecasts).
- Intra-month price volatility or intra-year rate moves (series are monthly prints and policy prints).
- Metro- or household-level inflation experience (CPI is a national basket average).
- This is an observational data index, not investment, legal, or medical advice.