How is Global Food Prices constructed?
Published by Deepstory Research as the methodology attached to Global Food Prices. Scope and source attribution are bounded by that Evidence Brief.
Procedure and scope
The FAO Food Price Index tracks international prices of a basket of food commodities — cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar — weighted by average export shares, rebased so 2014–2016 = 100. It measures INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY prices, not retail food prices. Consumer food inflation lags it and is damped by processing, packaging, transport and retail margins, which are the larger part of a shelf price in high-income countries. A 14% move in this index does not mean a 14% move at the supermarket. Annual values are averages of the twelve monthly readings, so a sharp mid-year spike is smoothed. CAVEAT: the 2022 rise (+14.3%) and 2023 fall (−13.7%) look nearly symmetrical in percentage terms but are not in level — the index did not return to its 2021 base, and prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Percentage changes on an index compound; they do not cancel. Re-verified 2026-08-10.
Known failure modes and limits
- Commodity sub-indices (cereals, dairy, oils, meat, sugar).
- Retail or consumer-level food prices.
- Country-level food inflation.