How is US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows constructed?
Published by Deepstory Research as the methodology attached to US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. Scope and source attribution are bounded by that Evidence Brief.
Procedure and scope
Flows are NET (creations less redemptions) for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs since the category launched on 11 January 2024. Net flow is not the same as AUM: AUM also moves with the bitcoin price, so a fund can grow in dollar terms while losing units. THE KEY READ: IBIT’s ~$62bn cumulative inflow EXCEEDS the whole category’s $51.3bn. That is not an error in the data. It means the other US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively net NEGATIVE by roughly $11bn on a cumulative basis. The category headline conceals a broad withdrawal underneath a single dominant fund. CAVEAT: IBIT’s share of category AUM is reported as a RANGE (49–62%) across sources and dates. A midpoint would be a fabrication, so the range is stated here and not charted. The cumulative checkpoints are published milestones, not a continuous daily series, so the line connects dated observations rather than tracking every trading day. Re-verified 2026-08-10.
Known failure modes and limits
- Holder identity or institutional versus retail split.
- AUM, which moves with price independently of flows.
- Flows outside the US spot ETF category.