Fed funds target rate path
Year-end target midpoint, %, 2021 → 2026.
About this data
The Fed lifted rates from near zero in 2022 to a 23-year-high 5.25–5.50% by mid-2023, then began cutting in late 2024. By 2026, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the target range sits at 3.50–3.75% and was held for a fourth straight meeting in June 2026 — with officials signaling a possible hike later in the year as inflation re-accelerated.
Fed funds target rate path
Year-end target midpoint, %. From the 2021 near-zero floor to the 2026 hold under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Data table
| pct | year | series | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | 2021 | fed_funds | fomc | Target range 0–0.25% (near zero) through 2021 |
| 4.375 | 2022 | fed_funds | fomc | Seven hikes in 2022 lifted the range to 4.25–4.50% by year-end |
| 5.375 | 2023 | fed_funds | fomc | Range reached 5.25–5.50% in July 2023 — a 23-year high |
| 4.375 | 2024 | fed_funds | fomc | Three cuts in late 2024 brought the range to 4.25–4.50% |
| 3.625 | 2025 | fed_funds | fed-jun2026 | Further cuts in 2025 set the 3.50–3.75% range held into 2026 |
1 more row + CSV download
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Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Six source-backed charts telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 CPI breakdown by category, the headline CPI’s mid-year turn (spring peak into the June cooldown), the year-end core PCE outlook (prior vs revised), the year-end fed funds target path (2021 → 2026), and a snapshot of current US benchmark rates. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. CPI figures are BLS releases as reported by CNBC/Marketplace for each month; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. The fed-funds rate path is from the Federal Reserve’s published FOMC history; the June 2026 hold (range 3.50–3.75%) is the fourth consecutive hold under Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage are dated snapshots (mid/late June 2026). CAVEAT: headline CPI and core PCE are different gauges, charted separately by design — the divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the point. The Feb 2026 CPI point shows headline only (core for that month was not in the cited reporting). Fed-funds points use the midpoint of the target range. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.