Deepstory Research

AI Data-Center Electricity Demand & the Grid

Global data-center power consumption, the AI share of incremental demand, capacity-market price spikes, US grid shortfall, per-site draw, and what it means for US power demand and your power bill.

Curated snapshot Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 22 data points
Global data-center electricity consumption

Global data-center electricity consumption

Historical + IEA scenario range, terawatt-hours per year.

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AI share of data-center power capacity

AI share of data-center power capacity

AI vs non-AI data-center power capacity, gigawatts (McKinsey base case).

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PJM capacity-market clearing price

PJM capacity-market clearing price

$ per MW-day by delivery year — the killer chart for the grid story.

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US grid shortfall projection to 2028

US grid shortfall projection to 2028

Projected peak demand vs available capacity, gigawatts.

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Per-site data-center power draw vs a city

Per-site data-center power draw vs a city

Average draw, megawatts — frontier sites now rival mid-sized urban load.

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US data-center power demand

US data-center power demand

Gigawatts. Total US data-center demand is on track to nearly double between 2025 and 2028 as AI build-outs land.

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Projected impact on electricity prices

Projected impact on electricity prices

Percent increase. Regions dense with data centers face the steepest hikes; the national wholesale range spans the low and high scenarios.

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Data table

AI Data-Center Electricity Demand & the Grid — full data table
year series source_ref value_basis twh_historic twh_scenario ai_gw non_ai_gw delivery_year clearing_price_usd_per_mw_day demand_gw capacity_gw entity draw_mw gw pct label
2024 global_consumption iea-electricity IEA Energy & AI: ~415 TWh in 2024 (~1.5% of global electricity); corroborated by S&P Global 415
2030 global_consumption iea-electricity IEA base case ~945 TWh by 2030 (S&P Global: roughly doubles) 945
2035 global_consumption iea-electricity IEA base case ~1,200 TWh by 2035 1200
2025 ai_share mckinsey-aipower McKinsey “AI power”: AI workload power ~44 GW in 2025; total DC capacity ~103 GW (JLL) ⇒ non-AI ~59 GW (deduction) 44 59
2028 ai_share mckinsey-aipower Interpolated along McKinsey base-case trajectory (AI 44→156 GW; total ~103→219 GW, 2025→2030) — labeled estimate 100 75

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Methodology & sources

Last updated: Aug 5, 2026

Methodology

Source-backed values are seeded for all seven charts: global data-center electricity consumption (IEA Energy & AI, historic vs base-case scenario, corroborated by S&P Global), the AI vs non-AI share of data-center power capacity (McKinsey base case, corroborated by JLL), the PJM capacity-market clearing price by delivery year (PJM Base Residual Auction reports, corroborated by Utility Dive), the US data-center demand-vs-supply gap to 2028 (Morgan Stanley; Deloitte), per-site power draw vs a city, US data-center power demand (2025 vs 2028), and the projected electricity-price impact by region/scenario. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. The 2028 available-capacity figure is derived from Morgan Stanley’s ~45 GW shortfall estimate against ~100 GW demand (labeled in the value_basis). Demand figures trace to CRS data-center energy analysis; the Virginia (+57% by 2030) and national wholesale (+6% to +29% by end of decade) price impacts trace to Fortune / public-opinion reporting on data-center power costs. ESTIMATE: the AI-share chart uses McKinsey’s published AI-vs-total capacity trajectory (AI ~44 GW in 2025 → ~156 GW of ~219 GW total by 2030); the 2028 point is interpolated along that trajectory and the non-AI slice is a deduction (total − AI). It is a published-estimate split, not a measured per-year megawatt count. CAVEAT: price-impact figures are forward scenarios, not realized prices, and depend on how fast new generation is added. Ranges are shown as separate low/high bars rather than a single point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.

Sources

Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.

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