Headline CPI: the mid-2026 turn
Year-over-year %, spring into summer 2026.
About this data
Headline CPI climbed to a spring peak of 4.2% in May 2026 before easing to 3.5% in June — the first monthly cooldown after three straight increases. The relief is largely energy-led as the oil shock faded, which is why economists caution it may not hold if the underlying pressures persist.
Headline CPI: the mid-2026 turn
Year-over-year %. Headline inflation peaked in spring, then fell in June — but the relief is energy-led and may not last.
Data table
| month | series | headline | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.3 | bls-cpi | March 2026 CPI +3.3% YoY |
| Apr 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.8 | bls-cpi | April 2026 CPI +3.8% YoY |
| May 2026 | cpi_turn | 4.2 | marketplace-june-cpi | May 2026 CPI +4.2% YoY (spring peak) |
| Jun 2026 | cpi_turn | 3.5 | marketplace-june-cpi | June 2026 CPI eased to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Six source-backed charts telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 CPI breakdown by category, the headline CPI’s mid-year turn (spring peak into the June cooldown), the year-end core PCE outlook (prior vs revised), the year-end fed funds target path (2021 → 2026), and a snapshot of current US benchmark rates. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. CPI figures are BLS releases as reported by CNBC/Marketplace for each month; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. The fed-funds rate path is from the Federal Reserve’s published FOMC history; the June 2026 hold (range 3.50–3.75%) is the fourth consecutive hold under Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage are dated snapshots (mid/late June 2026). CAVEAT: headline CPI and core PCE are different gauges, charted separately by design — the divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the point. The Feb 2026 CPI point shows headline only (core for that month was not in the cited reporting). Fed-funds points use the midpoint of the target range. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.