2026 CPI path: headline vs core
Year-over-year %, Feb → May 2026.
About this data
Headline CPI re-accelerated from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May 2026 — the hottest since April 2023 — while core (ex food and energy) crept from 2.6% to 2.9%. The gap between the two lines is the tell: the spike is energy-driven, not yet broad-based, which is exactly the Fed’s dilemma.
2026 CPI path: headline vs core
Year-over-year %. Inflation re-accelerated through spring 2026, led by energy.
Data table
| month | series | headline | source_ref | value_basis | core |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | cpi_path | 2.4 | cnbc-cpi-mar | Feb 2026 headline CPI 2.4% YoY (per March report comparison) | |
| Mar 2026 | cpi_path | 3.3 | cnbc-cpi-mar | Mar 2026 CPI +3.3% headline, +2.6% core YoY | 2.6 |
| Apr 2026 | cpi_path | 3.8 | cnbc-cpi-apr | Apr 2026 CPI +3.8% headline, +2.8% core YoY | 2.8 |
| May 2026 | cpi_path | 4.2 | cnbc-cpi-may | May 2026 CPI +4.2% headline (highest since Apr 2023), +2.9% core YoY | 2.9 |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Six source-backed charts telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 CPI breakdown by category, the headline CPI’s mid-year turn (spring peak into the June cooldown), the year-end core PCE outlook (prior vs revised), the year-end fed funds target path (2021 → 2026), and a snapshot of current US benchmark rates. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. CPI figures are BLS releases as reported by CNBC/Marketplace for each month; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. The fed-funds rate path is from the Federal Reserve’s published FOMC history; the June 2026 hold (range 3.50–3.75%) is the fourth consecutive hold under Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage are dated snapshots (mid/late June 2026). CAVEAT: headline CPI and core PCE are different gauges, charted separately by design — the divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the point. The Feb 2026 CPI point shows headline only (core for that month was not in the cited reporting). Fed-funds points use the midpoint of the target range. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.