The core-inflation outlook is still rising
Core PCE year-end 2026 forecast, %.
About this data
Even as headline CPI eased, the year-end core PCE outlook — the Fed’s preferred gauge — was revised up from 2.9% to 3.4%, driven by a supply shock in oil, gas, fertilizer and helium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. That divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the central tension the Fed faces in the back half of 2026.
The core-inflation outlook is still rising
Core PCE, year-end 2026 forecast (%). Even as headline CPI eased, the Fed's preferred gauge was revised UP on the Strait of Hormuz energy and fertilizer shock.
Data table
| pct | label | series | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | Core PCE outlook (prior) | core_pce_outlook | jpm-outlook | Prior year-end 2026 core PCE outlook ~2.9% |
| 3.4 | Core PCE outlook (revised) | core_pce_outlook | jpm-outlook | Year-end 2026 core PCE outlook raised to 3.4% on Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium supply shock |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Six source-backed charts telling one connected macro story: the 2026 CPI path (headline vs core), the May 2026 CPI breakdown by category, the headline CPI’s mid-year turn (spring peak into the June cooldown), the year-end core PCE outlook (prior vs revised), the year-end fed funds target path (2021 → 2026), and a snapshot of current US benchmark rates. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. CPI figures are BLS releases as reported by CNBC/Marketplace for each month; the core PCE outlook revision (2.9% → 3.4%) traces to J.P. Morgan’s midyear outlook, driven by the Strait of Hormuz oil, gas, fertilizer and helium shock. The fed-funds rate path is from the Federal Reserve’s published FOMC history; the June 2026 hold (range 3.50–3.75%) is the fourth consecutive hold under Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage are dated snapshots (mid/late June 2026). CAVEAT: headline CPI and core PCE are different gauges, charted separately by design — the divergence between a falling headline and a rising core outlook is the point. The Feb 2026 CPI point shows headline only (core for that month was not in the cited reporting). Fed-funds points use the midpoint of the target range. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.