Projected impact on electricity prices
Percent increase by scenario and region.
About this data
Data-center-dense regions face the steepest hikes: Virginia generation costs could rise as much as 57% by 2030, while the national wholesale electricity cost is projected to climb somewhere between 6% and 29% by the end of the decade. These are scenario estimates, not guarantees, and the range itself is the point — the outcome depends on how fast new generation is added.
Projected impact on electricity prices
Percent increase. Regions dense with data centers face the steepest hikes; the national wholesale range spans the low and high scenarios.
Data table
| pct | label | series | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Virginia generation cost, by 2030 | price_impact | fortune-dc-costs | Virginia electricity generation costs could rise as much as 57% by the end of the decade |
| 29 | US wholesale, decade-end (high) | price_impact | fortune-dc-costs | National average wholesale electricity cost could rise up to 29% by end of decade (high scenario) |
| 6 | US wholesale, decade-end (low) | price_impact | fortune-dc-costs | National average wholesale electricity cost could rise as little as 6% by end of decade (low scenario) |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Source-backed values are seeded for all seven charts: global data-center electricity consumption (IEA Energy & AI, historic vs base-case scenario, corroborated by S&P Global), the AI vs non-AI share of data-center power capacity (McKinsey base case, corroborated by JLL), the PJM capacity-market clearing price by delivery year (PJM Base Residual Auction reports, corroborated by Utility Dive), the US data-center demand-vs-supply gap to 2028 (Morgan Stanley; Deloitte), per-site power draw vs a city, US data-center power demand (2025 vs 2028), and the projected electricity-price impact by region/scenario. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. The 2028 available-capacity figure is derived from Morgan Stanley’s ~45 GW shortfall estimate against ~100 GW demand (labeled in the value_basis). Demand figures trace to CRS data-center energy analysis; the Virginia (+57% by 2030) and national wholesale (+6% to +29% by end of decade) price impacts trace to Fortune / public-opinion reporting on data-center power costs. ESTIMATE: the AI-share chart uses McKinsey’s published AI-vs-total capacity trajectory (AI ~44 GW in 2025 → ~156 GW of ~219 GW total by 2030); the 2028 point is interpolated along that trajectory and the non-AI slice is a deduction (total − AI). It is a published-estimate split, not a measured per-year megawatt count. CAVEAT: price-impact figures are forward scenarios, not realized prices, and depend on how fast new generation is added. Ranges are shown as separate low/high bars rather than a single point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.