How is Shipping Chokepoints constructed?
Published by Deepstory Research as the methodology attached to Shipping Chokepoints. Scope and source attribution are bounded by that Evidence Brief.
Procedure and scope
Two simultaneous disruptions with completely different causes, shown separately because they are not comparable. The Suez collapse is a SECURITY event — sustained attacks on shipping from December 2023 made the route unacceptably risky. The Panama restriction is a PHYSICAL one — drought lowered the lake feeding the lock system, so the canal could not supply water for a full transit schedule. The Suez figures are percentage declines against differing baselines (some against the pre-attack level, the October 2024 reading against the previous peak). Each bar’s value_basis states which. They should not be read as a single time series. Panama transit numbers are PERMITTED daily transits set by the Canal Authority, not observed traffic — a capacity ceiling rather than a count. The 18-per-day figure was a planned further reduction. CAVEAT: both situations have since partly eased. Panama transits rose 25% between October 2024 and January 2025 versus the year before. These charts capture the depth of the disruption, not current state. Re-verified 2026-08-10.
Known failure modes and limits
- Freight rates or insurance premia.
- Current transit levels — these are the disruption-period figures.
- Cargo-value or commodity-mix effects.