Diesel and the Hormuz premium
$/gallon — actual vs EIA forecast.
About this data
The largest 2026 fuel-price moves were in diesel and jet fuel, where the Strait of Hormuz disruption hit hardest. The EIA expected on-highway diesel to average about $5.36/gal in Q2 2026 and $4.76 for the full year — a steep premium over the sub-$4 norm of recent years.
Diesel and the Hormuz premium
$/gallon. The mid-May actual vs the EIA's Q2 and full-year 2026 forecasts.
Data table
| label | series | usd_gal | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-May 2026 (actual) | diesel_outlook | 5.62 | eia-gasdiesel | EIA: diesel ~$5.618/gal mid-May 2026 |
| Q2 2026 (EIA forecast) | diesel_outlook | 5.36 | eia-steo-jun2026 | EIA STEO: on-highway diesel forecast to average $5.36/gal in Q2 2026 (Hormuz premium) |
| 2026 full year (EIA forecast) | diesel_outlook | 4.76 | eia-steo-jun2026 | EIA STEO: on-highway diesel forecast to average $4.76/gal for 2026 |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
A consolidated US oil & gas data hub. Source-backed values are seeded for all seven charts: the 2026 Brent crude journey through the Strait of Hormuz shock, Henry Hub natural gas annual averages, US crude oil production, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown, the Baker Hughes rig count, and national pump prices for gasoline and diesel. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. Crude and gas prices and production are from the EIA; the rig count is Baker Hughes; the SPR level is EIA weekly stocks with context from DOE and CNN; pump prices are the AAA national average (gasoline) and EIA on-highway price / STEO forecasts (diesel). CAVEAT: the 2026 Henry Hub value ($3.34) and the diesel-related forecasts are EIA projections, labeled as forecasts. The crude chart shows Brent milestone points (not every month); the Jun point also carries the WTI spot ($77.54, Jun 22 2026). The gasoline point (Jun 18 2026) and diesel point (mid-May 2026) carry different dates, each labeled, as the latest cited value per fuel. Re-verified 2026-06-22.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.