US data-center demand vs supply
Projected demand vs available capacity to 2028, GW (Morgan Stanley).
About this data
Morgan Stanley projects US data-center demand near ~100 GW by 2028 against materially less available capacity — roughly a 45 GW shortfall. That gap is what drives both the capacity-price spike and the scramble for new build, including behind-the-meter and on-site generation.
US grid shortfall projection to 2028
Projected peak demand vs available capacity, gigawatts.
Data table
| year | series | demand_gw | source_ref | capacity_gw | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | us_shortfall | 40 | morgan-stanley | 40 | Morgan Stanley: US data-center demand ~40 GW in 2024 (supply roughly met) |
| 2028 | us_shortfall | 100 | morgan-stanley | 55 | Morgan Stanley: ~100 GW demand by 2028 vs ~45 GW shortfall ⇒ ~55 GW available (Deloitte corroborates 80→150 GW total DC) |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026Methodology
Source-backed values are seeded for all seven charts: global data-center electricity consumption (IEA Energy & AI, historic vs base-case scenario, corroborated by S&P Global), the AI vs non-AI share of data-center power capacity (McKinsey base case, corroborated by JLL), the PJM capacity-market clearing price by delivery year (PJM Base Residual Auction reports, corroborated by Utility Dive), the US data-center demand-vs-supply gap to 2028 (Morgan Stanley; Deloitte), per-site power draw vs a city, US data-center power demand (2025 vs 2028), and the projected electricity-price impact by region/scenario. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. The 2028 available-capacity figure is derived from Morgan Stanley’s ~45 GW shortfall estimate against ~100 GW demand (labeled in the value_basis). Demand figures trace to CRS data-center energy analysis; the Virginia (+57% by 2030) and national wholesale (+6% to +29% by end of decade) price impacts trace to Fortune / public-opinion reporting on data-center power costs. ESTIMATE: the AI-share chart uses McKinsey’s published AI-vs-total capacity trajectory (AI ~44 GW in 2025 → ~156 GW of ~219 GW total by 2030); the 2028 point is interpolated along that trajectory and the non-AI slice is a deduction (total − AI). It is a published-estimate split, not a measured per-year megawatt count. CAVEAT: price-impact figures are forward scenarios, not realized prices, and depend on how fast new generation is added. Ranges are shown as separate low/high bars rather than a single point. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Sources
- Morgan Stanley Research — data-center power ↗ Public report
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.