AI share of data-center power capacity
AI vs non-AI data-center power capacity, GW (McKinsey base case).
About this data
McKinsey’s base case has AI-specific data-center capacity rising from ~44 GW in 2025 to ~156 GW of ~219 GW total by 2030 — AI moving from a minority to roughly half of all data-center power. The non-AI slice is the remainder; the 2028 point is interpolated along that trajectory and labeled as an estimate.
AI vs non-AI data-center power capacity, gigawatts (McKinsey base case).
View data & sources →Data table
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Source-backed values are seeded for all five charts: global data-center electricity consumption (IEA Energy & AI, historic vs base-case scenario, corroborated by S&P Global), the AI vs non-AI share of data-center power capacity (McKinsey base case, corroborated by JLL), the PJM capacity-market clearing price by delivery year (PJM Base Residual Auction reports, corroborated by Utility Dive), the US data-center demand-vs-supply gap to 2028 (Morgan Stanley; Deloitte), and per-site power draw vs a city. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. The 2028 available-capacity figure is derived from Morgan Stanley’s ~45 GW shortfall estimate against ~100 GW demand (labeled in the value_basis). ESTIMATE: the AI-share chart uses McKinsey’s published AI-vs-total capacity trajectory (AI ~44 GW in 2025 → ~156 GW of ~219 GW total by 2030); the 2028 point is interpolated along that trajectory and the non-AI slice is a deduction (total − AI). It is a published-estimate split, not a measured per-year megawatt count. Re-verified 2026-06-17.
Sources
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.