Diesel and the Hormuz premium
$/gallon — actual vs EIA forecast.
About this data
The largest 2026 fuel-price moves were in diesel and jet fuel, where the Strait of Hormuz disruption hit hardest. The EIA expected on-highway diesel to average about $5.36/gal in Q2 2026 and $4.76 for the full year — a steep premium over the sub-$4 norm of recent years.
$/gallon. The mid-May actual vs the EIA's Q2 and full-year 2026 forecasts.
View data & sources →Data table
| label | series | usd_gal | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-May 2026 (actual) | diesel_outlook | 5.62 | eia-gasdiesel | EIA: diesel ~$5.618/gal mid-May 2026 |
| Q2 2026 (EIA forecast) | diesel_outlook | 5.36 | eia-steo-jun2026 | EIA STEO: on-highway diesel forecast to average $5.36/gal in Q2 2026 (Hormuz premium) |
| 2026 full year (EIA forecast) | diesel_outlook | 4.76 | eia-steo-jun2026 | EIA STEO: on-highway diesel forecast to average $4.76/gal for 2026 |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Source-backed values are seeded for both charts: current national-average gas vs diesel, and diesel actual vs EIA forecast. Every numeric point carries a sources[].ref and a value_basis. Gasoline is the AAA national average; diesel is the EIA on-highway price and STEO forecasts. CAVEAT: the gasoline point (Jun 18 2026) and the diesel point (mid-May 2026) carry different dates — each is labeled — because they are the latest cited value for each fuel. The Q2 and full-year diesel figures are EIA forecasts. Re-verified 2026-06-22.
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.