2026 home-price forecasts diverge
Projected US home-price growth for 2026, % by forecaster.
About this data
Forecasts for 2026 home-price growth range from just +0.6% (MBA) to +4.0% (NAR), with Fannie Mae (+3.2%), Realtor.com (+2.2%) and Zillow (+1.2%) in between. The common thread: prices are expected to grow slower than wages for a sustained stretch for the first time since the 2008 aftermath — a gradual affordability thaw rather than a crash.
Projected US home-price growth for 2026 (%), by forecaster. Every major outlook sees prices rising slower than in prior years — the first real affordability thaw since 2008.
View data & sources →Data table
| pct | series | source | source_ref | value_basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | price_forecasts | NAR | usnews-rate-forecast | NAR: median home price to rise ~4% in 2026 |
| 3.2 | price_forecasts | Fannie Mae | usnews-rate-forecast | Fannie Mae: home prices +3.2% in 2026 |
| 2.2 | price_forecasts | Realtor.com | usnews-rate-forecast | Realtor.com: existing-home sale prices +2.2% in 2026 |
| 1.2 | price_forecasts | Zillow | usnews-rate-forecast | Zillow: home values +1.2% in 2026 |
| 0.6 | price_forecasts | MBA | usnews-rate-forecast | MBA: home prices +0.6% in 2026 |
Methodology & sources
Last updated: Jul 17, 2026Methodology
Two source-backed charts: current US benchmark mortgage rates (%) and 2026 home-price growth forecasts (%) across five major forecasters. Rates trace to the Freddie Mac PMMS (30-yr 6.55%, 15-yr 5.93%, week of Jul 16 2026). Price-growth forecasts (NAR +4.0%, Fannie Mae +3.2%, Realtor.com +2.2%, Zillow +1.2%, MBA +0.6%) trace to the cited 2026 forecast roundup. CAVEAT: forecasters use slightly different price measures (median sale price vs home-value index), so the bars show the spread of outlooks, not a single consensus number. Re-verified 2026-07-17.
Comparisons are informative, not definitive. See each source for definitions and limits.