--- title: "US Office Vacancy" slug: us-office-vacancy type: data-index sector: real-estate canonical_url: https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/us-office-vacancy series: [vacancy_rate, forecast_vs_actual] series_count: 2 data_point_count: 7 data_as_of: unreviewed source_quality: curated_snapshot tier: free generated_at: 2026-08-18 --- # US Office Vacancy _Office vacancy at successive record highs — and how far the forecast peak ran ahead of the actual._ > Deepstory Research context file · **Free tier** · > Self-contained AI briefing. Drop into an LLM window or RAG pipeline. ## AI research use contract - Treat this file as source-grounded context, not a live database. Quote `source_ref` and `data_as_of` when using numbers. - Separate `FACT`, `ESTIMATE`, `FORECAST`, `TARGET`, and `INFERENCE`. If a row basis is unclear, say it is unclear. - Prefer T1/T2 sources for hard facts; use T3/T4 sources as context that should be checked before money, legal, medical, operational, or policy decisions. - Keep answer structure clean: first say what the data says, then what you infer, then what would change the conclusion. ## TL;DR — index summary Office vacancy went from 17% in 2020 to 21% by Q1 2026. The 20.1% reading in Q2 2024 was the first time the 20% threshold had been crossed in the roughly fifty years Moody’s has kept the series. The trend has flattened rather than reversed — Q1 2026 was up only 10 basis points on the prior quarter, but still 60 basis points on the year. Moody’s Analytics research projected national office vacancy peaking near 24% in early 2026. The actual Q1 2026 print was 21% — three points below, and still creeping up rather than peaking. Distress forecasts in this sector have consistently run ahead of the realised numbers, which matters because those forecasts drive lender provisioning and valuation marks. ## What this index covers Office vacancy at successive record highs — and how far the forecast peak ran ahead of the actual. This file is generated from the index spec and the seeded rows. Its per-series sections carry the reviewed chart notes verbatim; it has no separate editorial layer (no glossary, entity table, timeline or cross-series synthesis), and no reviewed "data as of" date. **Series in this index:** - `vacancy_rate` — Share of US office space vacant, %, at published checkpoints. - `forecast_vs_actual` — Moody’s projected peak vacancy versus what Q1 2026 actually printed, %. ## Evidence basis map The free tables above show `source_ref` but not the row-level `value_basis`. This section mirrors the visible rows only, so AI tools can separate observed values from estimates, forecasts, targets, and derived values. | series | row | source_ref | value_basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | vacancy_rate | checkpoint=2020; pct=17 | moodys-q1-2026 | US office vacancy 17% in 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline cited in the Q1 2026 comparison | | vacancy_rate | checkpoint=Q1 2024; pct=19.8 | bloomberg-q1-2024 | Record 19.8% office vacancy in Q1 2024 (Moody’s) | | vacancy_rate | checkpoint=Q2 2024; pct=20.1 | moodys-q2-2024 | 20.1% in Q2 2024 — first breach of 20% in ~50 years of Moody’s data | | vacancy_rate | checkpoint=Q4 2024; pct=20.6 | facilitiesdive-20pct | Nationwide office vacancy 20.6% in Q4 2024 | | vacancy_rate | checkpoint=Q1 2026; pct=21 | moodys-q1-2026 | 21% of office space vacant across 79 US markets in Q1 2026, +10bp QoQ and +60bp YoY | | forecast_vs_actual | basis=Moody’s projected peak; pct=24 | moodys-q1-2026 | Moody’s Analytics research projected national office vacancy peaking near 24% in early 2026 — FORECAST | | forecast_vs_actual | basis=Actual, Q1 2026; pct=21 | moodys-q1-2026 | Actual Q1 2026 office vacancy 21% — three points below the projected peak | ## The series (per-chart briefings) ### US office vacancy rate — line **Direct answer:** Share of US office space vacant, %, at published checkpoints. | checkpoint | pct | source_ref | | --- | --- | --- | | 2020 | 17 | moodys-q1-2026 | | Q1 2024 | 19.8 | bloomberg-q1-2024 | | Q2 2024 | 20.1 | moodys-q2-2024 | | Q4 2024 | 20.6 | facilitiesdive-20pct | | Q1 2026 | 21 | moodys-q1-2026 | **Read:** Office vacancy went from 17% in 2020 to 21% by Q1 2026. The 20.1% reading in Q2 2024 was the first time the 20% threshold had been crossed in the roughly fifty years Moody’s has kept the series. The trend has flattened rather than reversed — Q1 2026 was up only 10 basis points on the prior quarter, but still 60 basis points on the year. ### The forecast peak against the actual — hbar **Direct answer:** Moody’s projected peak vacancy versus what Q1 2026 actually printed, %. | basis | pct | source_ref | | --- | --- | --- | | Moody’s projected peak | 24 | moodys-q1-2026 | | Actual, Q1 2026 | 21 | moodys-q1-2026 | **Read:** Moody’s Analytics research projected national office vacancy peaking near 24% in early 2026. The actual Q1 2026 print was 21% — three points below, and still creeping up rather than peaking. Distress forecasts in this sector have consistently run ahead of the realised numbers, which matters because those forecasts drive lender provisioning and valuation marks. ## How to use this with AI Paste this file into an LLM context window (or a RAG store) and ask cross-series questions. The tables carry a `source_ref` per row; the source registry below maps each ref to a named source and a trust tier. ### Suggested prompts (multi-series) ```text Using the tables in this file, describe what has changed across `vacancy_rate`, `forecast_vs_actual` and cite the source_ref for every figure you quote. ``` ```text Which claims in this file rest on a single source? List them with the ref, and say what a second source would need to show to confirm each one. ``` ## Sources & trust | ref | source | trust tier | url | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | moodys-q1-2026 | Axios — Office vacancies hit record high (Moody’s, Q1 2026) | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://www.axios.com/2026/04/02/office-vacancies-moodys-real-estate | | moodys-q2-2024 | Fortune — Office vacancies set a new all-time high (Moody’s, Q2 2024) | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://fortune.com/2024/07/02/office-vacancies-all-time-high-moodys/ | | bloomberg-q1-2024 | Bloomberg — US office vacancies rise to a record 19.8% in Q1 (Moody’s) | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/office-vacancy-rate-nears-20-to-set-fresh-record-moody-s-says | | facilitiesdive-20pct | Facilities Dive — US office vacancy rates break 20% for the first time | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://www.facilitiesdive.com/news/us-office-vacancy-rates-moodys-analysis/720862/ | ## Caveats & what this index cannot answer - This file has no reviewed "data as of" date — check `last_updated` and the source URLs before treating any figure as current. - It carries no glossary or entity table, so terms are used as the sources use them. - Estimates and forward targets are labelled in the working dataset; never read a labelled estimate or forecast as a settled figure. - This is an observational data index, not investment, legal, or medical advice. ## Data freshness & methodology - **Last updated:** 2026-08-18 - **Data as of:** unreviewed **Methodology (as seeded):** > Vacancy is the share of office space available and unoccupied across > the markets Moody’s tracks (79 US markets as of the Q1 2026 reading). > Vacancy is NOT the same as availability, which also counts space being > marketed but still occupied, and is not the same as utilisation, which > measures whether leased space is actually being used. Utilisation is > materially worse than vacancy in the post-2020 market — a leased but > empty floor counts as occupied here. > > The x-axis mixes an annual figure (2020) with quarterly readings, so > the spacing is not uniform. Each point’s label states its period. > > The 20.1% print in Q2 2024 was the first time the series crossed 20% > in roughly fifty years of Moody’s data. > > CAVEAT: the forecast-vs-actual chart compares a projection with an > outcome and should not be read as a time series. Moody’s projected a > ~24% peak in early 2026; the Q1 2026 actual was 21% and still rising > slowly rather than peaking. Distress forecasts in this sector have run > ahead of realised numbers, which matters because those forecasts feed > lender provisioning and valuation marks. > > Read alongside datacenter-real-estate: same broad asset class, same > quarter, one at a record high and the other at a record low. > > Re-verified 2026-08-11. --- _Free tier. The full row-level dataset and per-source detail live on the live page and in the working file. Canonical: . Deepstory Research · https://deepstoryresearch.com_