--- title: "SpaceX Launch Cadence" slug: spacex-launch-cadence type: data-index sector: aerospace canonical_url: https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/spacex-launch-cadence series: [f9_per_year, cadence_2026] series_count: 2 data_point_count: 9 data_as_of: 2026-08 source_quality: curated_snapshot tier: free generated_at: 2026-08-11 --- # SpaceX Launch Cadence _The compounding launch rate, and what it is carrying_ > Deepstory Research context file · **Free tier** · > Self-contained AI briefing. Drop into an LLM window or RAG pipeline. ## AI research use contract - Treat this file as source-grounded context, not a live database. Quote `source_ref` and `data_as_of` when using numbers. - Separate `FACT`, `ESTIMATE`, `FORECAST`, `TARGET`, and `INFERENCE`. If a row basis is unclear, say it is unclear. - Prefer T1/T2 sources for hard facts; use T3/T4 sources as context that should be checked before money, legal, medical, operational, or policy decisions. - Keep answer structure clean: first say what the data says, then what you infer, then what would change the conclusion. ## Research upgrade checklist - Separate Falcon 9 from Falcon Heavy and Starship; cadence claims often silently mix vehicles. - Distinguish Starlink missions from third-party payloads — the mix drives the revenue read, not the count. - Label year-to-date figures explicitly; the 2026 bar is not a full year. - Add a prompt on reuse economics: booster flights per core, turnaround time, refurbishment cost. ## TL;DR — index summary Falcon 9 flew 26 times in 2020, 132 in 2024 and a record 165 in 2025. The 90th flight of 2026 came on 4 August, implying roughly 0.4 launches per day and a run-rate consistent with another record year. ## What this index covers Two series: Falcon 9 flights per calendar year, and cumulative 2026 cadence checkpoints. **Series in this index:** - `f9_per_year` — Orbital Falcon 9 flights by calendar year. - `cadence_2026` — Cumulative flights at published dates in 2026. **Entities tracked:** SpaceX, Starlink, AST SpaceMobile. ## Key findings - Cadence compounded from 26 flights (2020) to 165 (2025) (wikipedia-f9-list). - 70 flights by 17 June 2026, 90 by 4 August — about 0.4 launches per day (spaceflightnow-aug4). - The 4 August Vandenberg mission carried 24 Starlink satellites (spaceflightnow-aug4). ## Evidence basis map The free tables above show `source_ref` but not the row-level `value_basis`. This section mirrors the visible rows only, so AI tools can separate observed values from estimates, forecasts, targets, and derived values. | series | row | source_ref | value_basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | f9_per_year | year=2020; launches=26 | wikipedia-f9-list | 26 Falcon 9 launches in 2020 | | f9_per_year | year=2021; launches=31 | wikipedia-f9-list | 31 Falcon 9 launches in 2021 | | f9_per_year | year=2022; launches=60 | wikipedia-f9-list | 60 Falcon 9 launches in 2022 | | f9_per_year | year=2023; launches=91 | wikipedia-f9-list | 91 Falcon 9 launches in 2023 | | f9_per_year | year=2024; launches=132 | wikipedia-f9-list | 132 Falcon 9 launches in 2024 | | cadence_2026 | checkpoint=Jun 17, 2026; cumulative=70 | newspaceeconomy-2026 | 70 Falcon 9 launches as of June 17, 2026 | | cadence_2026 | checkpoint=Aug 4, 2026; cumulative=90 | spaceflightnow-aug4 | 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026 on Aug 4 (Starlink, Vandenberg, 24 satellites) | ## The series (per-chart briefings) ### Flights per year — line **Direct answer:** Orbital Falcon 9 flights by calendar year. **Time bracket:** 2020–2026 | year | launches | source_ref | | --- | --- | --- | | 2020 | 26 | wikipedia-f9-list | | 2021 | 31 | wikipedia-f9-list | | 2022 | 60 | wikipedia-f9-list | | 2023 | 91 | wikipedia-f9-list | | 2024 | 132 | wikipedia-f9-list | _+2 more rows on the live page and in the full working dataset._ **Read:** Almost uninterrupted compounding. **Caveat:** The 2026 figure is year-to-date, not a full year. ### 2026 checkpoints — bar **Direct answer:** Cumulative flights at published dates in 2026. **Time bracket:** 2026 YTD | checkpoint | cumulative | source_ref | | --- | --- | --- | | Jun 17, 2026 | 70 | newspaceeconomy-2026 | | Aug 4, 2026 | 90 | spaceflightnow-aug4 | **Read:** 0.4 launches per day across the June–August stretch. ## Cross-series synthesis — why this matters Cadence is the operational proxy for two things this index does not measure directly: Starlink constellation deployment and launch-market pricing power. A rate no competitor approaches means SpaceX sets the reference price for orbital access, which links this index to space-economy. ## Entities & relationships | Entity | What they do | Key stat | Relationship | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SpaceX | Operator | 165 flights in 2025 | Sets launch cadence and market price | | Starlink | Primary payload | 24 satellites on the 4 Aug mission | The internal demand that sustains the rate | | AST SpaceMobile | Third-party customer | 3 BlueBirds, 5 Aug | Shows external demand alongside Starlink | ## Timeline of key events & decisions - **2024** — 132 flights → the first year above 130 - **2025** — 165 flights — all-time record → the benchmark 2026 is tracking against - **4 Aug 2026** — 90th flight of the year → the checkpoint the run-rate is derived from ## Cross-industry ripple - **Satellite operators:** Cadence and price set the feasibility threshold for constellation business plans. _(inference)_ - **Telecoms:** Direct-to-cell payloads like AST BlueBirds put orbital capacity into the mobile market. _(inference)_ ## Non-obvious reads (interpretation) _This section is interpretation, not sourced fact — each item names the observation it is built on and a confidence level._ - **Observation:** Most flights carry the operator's own payload. **Read:** Cadence is partly self-supplied demand, so the record is a measure of vertical integration as much as of an external launch market. A third-party-only cadence series would look very different. _(confidence: medium)_ ## Glossary / key terms - **Cadence** — Launch frequency — flights per unit time. - **Orbital flight** — A launch reaching orbital velocity, excluding suborbital and static-fire tests. ## How to use this with AI Paste this file into an LLM context window (or a RAG store) and ask cross-series questions. The tables carry a `source_ref` per row; the source registry below maps each ref to a named source and a trust tier. ### Suggested prompts (multi-series) ```text Using f9_per_year and cadence_2026, project the 2026 full-year total and state your assumptions. ``` ```text Connect this index to space-economy: how does cadence translate into launch-cost-per-kg? ``` ## Sources & trust | ref | source | trust tier | url | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | wikipedia-f9-list | Wikipedia — List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches | | newspaceeconomy-2026 | New Space Economy — Maximum theoretical Falcon 9 launch rate for SpaceX in 2026 | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/04/05/maximum-theoretical-falcon-9-launch-rate-for-spacex-in-2026/ | | spaceflightnow-aug4 | Spaceflight Now — Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Vandenberg, 4 August 2026 | T3 · Reputable press / research org / OWID | https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/08/04/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-24-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-vandenberg-sfb-13/ | ## Caveats & what this index cannot answer - Falcon Heavy or Starship flights — Falcon 9 only. - Revenue, cost per launch, or booster reuse counts. - The Starlink vs third-party payload split across the full year. - Estimates and forward targets are labelled in the working dataset; never read a labelled estimate or forecast as a settled figure. - This is an observational data index, not investment, legal, or medical advice. ## Data freshness & methodology - **Last updated:** 2026-08-11 - **Data as of:** 2026-08 - **What changed most recently:** The 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026 launched from Vandenberg on 4 August with 24 Starlink satellites. **Methodology (as seeded):** > Counts orbital Falcon 9 launches by calendar year. Falcon Heavy and > Starship flights are excluded so the series measures one vehicle’s > cadence consistently across the period. > > The 2026 value is YEAR-TO-DATE as of Aug 4, 2026 and is labeled as > such — it is not comparable to the completed years beside it without > that adjustment. Annualising the Aug 4 run-rate is left to the reader > rather than plotted, because launch cadence is not uniform across a > calendar year. > > This index complements, and does not duplicate, the space-economy > index — that one covers valuation, satellites and cost per kg. > > Scout run: Trending_Candidates/2026-08-06.md. Re-verified 2026-08-10. --- _Free tier. The full row-level dataset and per-source detail live on the live page and in the working file. Canonical: . Deepstory Research · https://deepstoryresearch.com_