---
title: "Boeing’s Recovery, Quarter by Quarter"
slug: boeing-recovery
type: data-index
sector: aerospace
canonical_url: https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/boeing-recovery
series: [quarterly_fcf, quarterly_deliveries, backlog_growth, segment_margins, rate_path, model_mix]
series_count: 6
data_point_count: 30
data_as_of: 2026-07
source_quality: curated_snapshot
tier: free
generated_at: 2026-08-14
---

# Boeing’s Recovery, Quarter by Quarter
_Where Boeing has actually recovered, and where it has not_

> Deepstory Research context file · **Free tier** · <https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/boeing-recovery>
> Self-contained AI briefing. Drop into an LLM window or RAG pipeline.

## AI research use contract

- Treat this file as source-grounded context, not a live database. Quote `source_ref` and `data_as_of` when using numbers.
- Separate `FACT`, `ESTIMATE`, `FORECAST`, `TARGET`, and `INFERENCE`. If a row basis is unclear, say it is unclear.
- Prefer T1/T2 sources for hard facts; use T3/T4 sources as context that should be checked before money, legal, medical, operational, or policy decisions.
- Keep answer structure clean: first say what the data says, then what you infer, then what would change the conclusion.

## Research upgrade checklist

- Read free cash flow by quarter, never by single quarter — Boeing burns cash in Q1 and generates it later in the year.
- Keep production rate and delivery rate separate; parked-inventory drawdown decouples them.
- Re-source full-year segment margins before using them — the FY2025 Global Services figure did not reconcile and was dropped.
- Watch the 737-7 and 737-10 certification timeline: two of four MAX variants are not yet delivering into the rate.
- Add Q1 2025 deliveries if a primary figure is found — the quarter is currently omitted rather than interpolated.

## TL;DR — index summary

Boeing went from a $4.3bn quarterly cash burn in Q2 2024 to $631m of free cash flow in Q2 2026, with deliveries up 86% and backlog at a record $715.3bn. The recovery is real and it is not finished: full-year 2025 free cash flow was still negative at $1.9bn, Q1 2026 burned $1.5bn, Commercial Airplanes remains loss-making at a (2.7)% margin, and Defense went from +3.1% to (0.2)% in a single quarter. Three quarters of unit output comes from one programme — the 737 — whose next rate step of 52 a month has **no published FAA approval**.

## What this index covers

Six series from Boeing’s own quarterly releases: free cash flow by quarter, commercial deliveries by quarter, total company backlog, segment operating margins for Q1 vs Q2 2026, the 737 monthly rate path from the 2024 cap to the stated 52 target, and the Q2 2026 model mix.

**Series in this index:**

- `quarterly_fcf` — How much cash Boeing generated or consumed each quarter, $m.
- `quarterly_deliveries` — Commercial aircraft delivered each quarter.
- `backlog_growth` — Total company backlog at each quarter end, $bn.
- `segment_margins` — Operating margin by segment, Q1 vs Q2 2026.
- `rate_path` — The 737 monthly production rate at each published milestone.
- `model_mix` — Which programmes delivered the quarter’s 171 aircraft.

**Entities tracked:** Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Defense Space & Security, Boeing Global Services, FAA.

## Key findings

- Quarterly free cash flow: $(4,300)m in Q2 2024 → $631m in Q2 2026, but with a $(1,500)m relapse in Q1 2026 — the turn is seasonal, not monotonic (boeing-q2-2025 / boeing-q2-2026 / boeing-q1-2026).
- Full-year 2025 free cash flow was still $(1.9)bn, against $(14.3)bn in 2024. The annual number has not yet crossed zero (boeing-q4-2025).
- Deliveries rose from 92 in Q2 2024 to 171 in Q2 2026 — +86%, and the strongest quarter in the series (boeing-q2-2025 / boeing-q2-2026).
- Backlog grew $96bn in four quarters to a record $715.3bn, of which Commercial Airplanes is $596.7bn (boeing-q2-2025 / boeing-q2-2026).
- Commercial Airplanes margin improved from (6.1)% to (2.7)% in Q2 2026 while Defense fell from +3.1% to (0.2)%. Global Services was flat at 18.1% and is effectively all of the profit (boeing-q1-2026 / boeing-q2-2026).
- 129 of 171 Q2 2026 deliveries were 737s — 75% of unit output from one programme (boeing-q2-2026).
- The 737 rate path: 38 capped (early 2024) → 42 approved (17 Oct 2025) → 47 transitioning (Q2 2026) → 52 stated, with no approval date (aerotime-faa-42 / boeing-q2-2026).

## Evidence basis map

The free tables above show `source_ref` but not the row-level `value_basis`. This section mirrors the visible rows only, so AI tools can separate observed values from estimates, forecasts, targets, and derived values.

| series | row | source_ref | value_basis |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| quarterly_fcf | quarter=Q2 2024; fcf_musd=-4300 | boeing-q2-2025 | Prior-year comparative stated in the Q2 2025 release: free cash flow $(4.3)bn |
| quarterly_fcf | quarter=Q1 2025; fcf_musd=-2300 | boeing-q2-2025 | DERIVED by subtraction within one release: H1 2025 FCF $(2.5)bn less Q2 2025 $(0.2)bn. Cross-checks against the Q3 2025 nine-month figure to rounding |
| quarterly_fcf | quarter=Q2 2025; fcf_musd=-200 | boeing-q2-2025 | "Q2 2025 Free Cash Flow: $(0.2) billion" |
| quarterly_fcf | quarter=Q3 2025; fcf_musd=238 | boeing-q3-2025 | "Free cash flow: $238 million" |
| quarterly_fcf | quarter=Q4 2025; fcf_musd=375 | boeing-q4-2025 | "Q4 free cash flow: $375 million positive" |
| quarterly_deliveries | quarter=Q2 2024; aircraft=92 | boeing-q2-2025 | Prior-year comparative in the Q2 2025 release: 92 aircraft |
| quarterly_deliveries | quarter=Q2 2025; aircraft=150 | boeing-q2-2025 | "Q2 2025 Deliveries: 150 aircraft" |
| quarterly_deliveries | quarter=Q3 2025; aircraft=160 | boeing-q3-2025 | "Commercial deliveries: 160 aircraft" |
| quarterly_deliveries | quarter=Q4 2025; aircraft=160 | boeing-q4-deliveries-2025 | Q4 2025 deliveries release: 737 117 + 767 10 + 777 6 + 787 27 = 160 |
| quarterly_deliveries | quarter=Q1 2026; aircraft=143 | boeing-q1-2026 | "Total Commercial Deliveries: 143 aircraft" |
| backlog_growth | quarter=Q2 2025; usd_bn=619 | boeing-q2-2025 | "Total Company Backlog: $619 billion" |
| backlog_growth | quarter=Q3 2025; usd_bn=636 | boeing-q3-2025 | "Total backlog: $636 billion" |
| backlog_growth | quarter=Q4 2025; usd_bn=682 | boeing-q4-2025 | "Total Backlog: Record $682 billion" |
| backlog_growth | quarter=Q1 2026; usd_bn=695 | boeing-q1-2026 | "Total Backlog: $695 billion", record level |
| backlog_growth | quarter=Q2 2026; usd_bn=715.3 | boeing-q2-2026 | "Total Company Backlog: $715.3 billion" |
| segment_margins | segment=Commercial Airplanes; q1_2026=-6.1; q2_2026=-2.7 | boeing-q1-2026 | Segment operating margin: (6.1)% in Q1 2026 and (2.7)% in Q2 2026 per the respective releases |
| segment_margins | segment=Defense, Space & Security; q1_2026=3.1; q2_2026=-0.2 | boeing-q1-2026 | Segment operating margin: 3.1% in Q1 2026 and (0.2)% in Q2 2026 per the respective releases |
| segment_margins | segment=Global Services; q1_2026=18.1; q2_2026=18.1 | boeing-q1-2026 | Segment operating margin: 18.1% in both Q1 and Q2 2026 per the respective releases |
| rate_path | milestone=FAA cap, early 2024; rate=38 | aerotime-faa-42 | Cap imposed early 2024 following the Alaska Airlines 1282 door-plug incident |
| rate_path | milestone=FAA approval, 17 Oct 2025; rate=42 | aerotime-faa-42 | FAA raised the cap from 38 to 42 per month on 17 October 2025 |
| rate_path | milestone=Produced, Q1 2026; rate=42 | boeing-q1-2026 | "737 program continues to produce at a 42 per month rate" |
| rate_path | milestone=Transitioning, Q2 2026; rate=47 | boeing-q2-2026 | "began transitioning production to 47 per month rate in the quarter" |
| rate_path | milestone=Stated next step; rate=52 | boeing-q2-2026 | TARGET, not achieved or approved: stated step beyond 47; no FAA approval date or timetable published |
| model_mix | model=737; aircraft=129 | boeing-q2-2026 | "Q2 Deliveries: 171 aircraft (737: 129, 787: 25, 777: 7, 767: 10)" |
| model_mix | model=787; aircraft=25 | boeing-q2-2026 | Same passage |
| model_mix | model=767; aircraft=10 | boeing-q2-2026 | Same passage |
| model_mix | model=777; aircraft=7 | boeing-q2-2026 | Same passage |

## The series (per-chart briefings)

### Free cash flow by quarter — bar
**Direct answer:** How much cash Boeing generated or consumed each quarter, $m.
**Time bracket:** Q2 2024 – Q2 2026

| quarter | fcf_musd | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q2 2024 | -4300 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q1 2025 | -2300 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q2 2025 | -200 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q3 2025 | 238 | boeing-q3-2025 |
| Q4 2025 | 375 | boeing-q4-2025 |

_+2 more rows on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** Crossed positive in Q3 2025, relapsed in Q1 2026, recovered in Q2. Boeing burns cash in Q1 by pattern.
**Caveat:** Q1 2025 is DERIVED: H1 2025 $(2.5)bn less Q2 2025 $(0.2)bn, both from the same release. Cross-checks against the Q3 2025 nine-month figure to rounding.

### Deliveries by quarter — bar
**Direct answer:** Commercial aircraft delivered each quarter.
**Time bracket:** Q2 2024 – Q2 2026

| quarter | aircraft | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q2 2024 | 92 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q2 2025 | 150 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q3 2025 | 160 | boeing-q3-2025 |
| Q4 2025 | 160 | boeing-q4-deliveries-2025 |
| Q1 2026 | 143 | boeing-q1-2026 |

_+1 more row on the live page and in the full working dataset._

**Read:** The 143 → 171 step in 2026 is the 737 line moving from 42 toward 47 a month.
**Caveat:** Q1 2025 is OMITTED — not published in the releases used and not derivable on the same basis. Not interpolated.

### Total backlog — line
**Direct answer:** Total company backlog at each quarter end, $bn.
**Time bracket:** Q2 2025 – Q2 2026

| quarter | usd_bn | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q2 2025 | 619 | boeing-q2-2025 |
| Q3 2025 | 636 | boeing-q3-2025 |
| Q4 2025 | 682 | boeing-q4-2025 |
| Q1 2026 | 695 | boeing-q1-2026 |
| Q2 2026 | 715.3 | boeing-q2-2026 |

**Read:** A record at every observation. Boeing’s problem was never demand.
**Caveat:** Total company backlog including Defense and Services, not Commercial Airplanes alone.

### Segment margins — grouped-bar
**Direct answer:** Operating margin by segment, Q1 vs Q2 2026.
**Time bracket:** Q1 2026 vs Q2 2026

| segment | q1_2026 | q2_2026 | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Commercial Airplanes | -6.1 | -2.7 | boeing-q1-2026 |
| Defense, Space & Security | 3.1 | -0.2 | boeing-q1-2026 |
| Global Services | 18.1 | 18.1 | boeing-q1-2026 |

**Read:** Commercial halved its loss while Defense went negative. The company-level near-breakeven is a coincidence of the two.
**Caveat:** Full-year segment margins are DROPPED — the FY2025 Global Services figure could not be reconciled and was treated as unreliable.

### 737 rate path — bar
**Direct answer:** The 737 monthly production rate at each published milestone.
**Time bracket:** early 2024 – stated next step

| milestone | rate | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FAA cap, early 2024 | 38 | aerotime-faa-42 |
| FAA approval, 17 Oct 2025 | 42 | aerotime-faa-42 |
| Produced, Q1 2026 | 42 | boeing-q1-2026 |
| Transitioning, Q2 2026 | 47 | boeing-q2-2026 |
| Stated next step | 52 | boeing-q2-2026 |

**Read:** Twenty-one months under a regulatory cap, then two increases in nine months.
**Caveat:** The 38 and 42 figures are regulatory CAPS; 42 and 47 are rates Boeing reported producing at; 52 is a stated TARGET with no FAA approval or timetable. Production rate is not delivery rate.

### Q2 2026 model mix — bar
**Direct answer:** Which programmes delivered the quarter’s 171 aircraft.
**Time bracket:** Q2 2026

| model | aircraft | source_ref |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 737 | 129 | boeing-q2-2026 |
| 787 | 25 | boeing-q2-2026 |
| 767 | 10 | boeing-q2-2026 |
| 777 | 7 | boeing-q2-2026 |

**Read:** 75% from one programme — the concentration that makes the 737 rate path Boeing’s whole commercial story.
**Caveat:** One quarter. Model mix varies with the twin-aisle delivery schedule.

## Cross-series synthesis — why this matters

Read quarterly_fcf against quarterly_deliveries and the causal chain is visible: deliveries lead cash by roughly a quarter, because Boeing collects the majority of an aircraft’s price at handover. The Q1 2026 cash relapse sits alongside the Q1 delivery dip to 143, and the Q2 recovery alongside 171. This is a working-capital business, and the cash line is a lagging read on the delivery line rather than an independent signal.

Read backlog_growth against segment_margins and the recovery’s shape becomes clear. Demand never broke — backlog set a record at every one of five observations while the company was loss-making throughout. That means every unit of rate increase converts more or less directly into revenue without a sales fight, which is why production rate is the only Commercial Airplanes variable worth modelling.

Read rate_path against model_mix for the concentration risk. Three quarters of unit output is the 737, the programme that spent twenty-one months under a regulatory cap, and the next step in its rate has no approval date. Boeing’s recovery is therefore hostage to a single production line and a single regulator in a way Airbus’s is not — Airbus spreads single-aisle output across the A320neo family and the A220, under a different regulatory regime.

Read segment_margins last and note what it does not say. Global Services at 18.1% in both quarters is roughly 22% of revenue and effectively all of the profit. A company whose only profitable segment is aftermarket services is being valued on the recovery of the segments that are not profitable yet.

## Entities & relationships

| Entity | What they do | Key stat | Relationship |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Boeing Commercial Airplanes | Airframe manufacture | $11.8bn revenue, (2.7)% margin, $596.7bn backlog (Q2 2026) | The segment the whole recovery thesis rests on; still loss-making |
| Boeing Defense, Space & Security | Military and space | $7.5bn revenue, (0.2)% margin, $85.3bn backlog (Q2 2026) | Went negative in Q2 2026 as Commercial improved |
| Boeing Global Services | Aftermarket and support | $5.3bn revenue, 18.1% margin, $32.8bn backlog (Q2 2026) | ~22% of revenue and effectively all of the profit |
| FAA | Production-rate regulator | Capped 737 at 38/month early 2024; raised to 42 on 17 Oct 2025 | Holds the gate on every step of the rate path, including the unapproved 52 |
| 737 programme | Volume single-aisle | 129 of 171 Q2 2026 deliveries; 4,817 unfilled MAX orders | Three quarters of unit output; the 737-7 and 737-10 still not delivering |

## Timeline of key events & decisions

- **Jan 2024** — Alaska Airlines 1282 door-plug incident; FAA caps 737 at 38/month → the origin of the trough this index measures from
- **Q2 2024** — 92 deliveries, $(4.3)bn free cash flow → the low point of both series
- **Q3 2025** — First positive quarterly free cash flow (+$238m), alongside a $4.9bn 777X charge → the cash turn begins while charges continue
- **17 Oct 2025** — FAA raises the 737 cap to 42/month → the constraint moves from regulatory to industrial
- **Q1 2026** — $(1.5)bn free cash flow on 143 deliveries → the relapse that shows the turn is seasonal
- **Q2 2026** — 171 deliveries, +$631m FCF, record $715.3bn backlog; transition to 47/month begins; 737 North Line LRIP activates in July → the strongest quarter of the recovery

## Cross-industry ripple

- **Aerospace suppliers:** A rate path from 42 toward 52 requires supplier capacity committed years ahead of an approval that has no date — the risk of building for a rate that slips sits upstream, not at Boeing. _(inference)_
- **Airlines:** A record backlog with a constrained rate means delivery slots, not capital, set fleet growth; carriers with existing positions hold an appreciating asset. _(inference)_
- **Credit markets:** Two consecutive positive cash quarters followed by a seasonal relapse makes the annual figure, not the quarterly, the relevant covenant metric. _(inference)_
- **US defence procurement:** Defense turning negative while Commercial improves concentrates programme risk in fixed-price development contracts such as Air Force One. _(inference)_

## Non-obvious reads (interpretation)

_This section is interpretation, not sourced fact — each item names the observation it is built on and a confidence level._

- **Observation:** Backlog set a record at all five quarterly observations while the company was loss-making throughout.
  **Read:** Boeing’s crisis was never a demand crisis, which means conventional turnaround analysis — pricing, market share, customer retention — is largely the wrong lens. The only variable that converts backlog into cash is production rate, and the only party who can change it is a regulator. _(confidence: high)_
- **Observation:** Company-level Q2 2026 core operating loss was $1 million on $24.6bn of revenue.
  **Read:** That near-perfect breakeven is a coincidence of Commercial improving by roughly the amount Defense deteriorated, not evidence of a company at an inflection. Reading the consolidated line here would produce exactly the wrong conclusion; the segments tell opposite stories. _(confidence: high)_
- **Observation:** The 737-7 and 737-10 completed certification flight testing in Q2 2026 with first deliveries anticipated in 2027.
  **Read:** Two of the four MAX variants contribute nothing to the current rate. The rate increases achieved so far have come from MAX 8 and MAX 9 alone, so the delivery mix — and the customers waiting on the two uncertified variants — has further capacity to unlock that is not visible in the rate number. _(confidence: medium)_

## Glossary / key terms

- **Free cash flow** — Boeing’s non-GAAP measure: operating cash flow less capital expenditure.
- **Core operating earnings** — Boeing non-GAAP measure excluding pension and other post-retirement expense.
- **Backlog** — Total company unfilled orders in dollars, across Commercial, Defense and Services.
- **Rate cap** — A regulator-imposed ceiling on monthly production, distinct from the rate a manufacturer chooses to run.
- **LRIP** — Low-rate initial production — a new line running at deliberately reduced output while processes are proven.
- **Parked inventory** — Completed aircraft held undelivered. Drawing it down lets deliveries exceed production rate for a period.

## How to use this with AI

Paste this file into an LLM context window (or a RAG store) and ask cross-series questions. The tables carry a `source_ref` per row; the source registry below maps each ref to a named source and a trust tier.

### Suggested prompts (multi-series)

```text
Using quarterly_fcf and quarterly_deliveries, test whether cash flow lags deliveries by a quarter. State each figure with its source_ref and say where the relationship breaks.
```

```text
From segment_margins, compute the change in each segment’s margin between Q1 and Q2 2026 and explain why the consolidated result was near breakeven.
```

```text
Using rate_path, list which bars are regulatory caps, which are reported production rates, and which are targets. Explain why treating them as one series would mislead.
```

```text
Given backlog_growth and model_mix, estimate what a one-aircraft-per-month change in 737 rate is worth in annual deliveries, and state what you cannot conclude about revenue from that.
```

```text
Identify every value in this file that is derived rather than directly published, and describe how the derivation was cross-checked.
```

## Sources & trust

| ref | source | trust tier | url |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| airbus-od-jul26 | Airbus — Orders & Deliveries, July 2026 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft/market/orders-and-deliveries |
| airbus-h1-2026 | Airbus — Half-Year 2026 results, 29 July 2026 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-07-airbus-reports-half-year-h1-2026-results |
| airbus-fy2025 | Airbus — 793 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2025 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-01-airbus-reports-793-commercial-aircraft-deliveries-in-2025 |
| airbus-infographic-2023 | Airbus — 2023 commercial aircraft orders & deliveries infographic (annual history 2019–2023) | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jlcbta136/files/2024-01/Airbus-Infographic-2023-Commercial-Aircraft-orders-and-deliveries.pdf |
| boeing-q1-2026 | Boeing — First Quarter 2026 results | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2026/Boeing-Reports-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx |
| boeing-q2-2026 | Boeing — Second Quarter 2026 results, 28 July 2026 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2026-07-28-Boeing-Reports-Second-Quarter-Results |
| boeing-q4-2025 | Boeing — Fourth Quarter and full-year 2025 results, 27 January 2026 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2026-01-27-Boeing-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results |
| boeing-q3-2025 | Boeing — Third Quarter 2025 results, 29 October 2025 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2025-10-29-Boeing-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results |
| boeing-q2-2025 | Boeing — Second Quarter 2025 results | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2025/Boeing-Reports-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx |
| boeing-q4-deliveries-2025 | Boeing — Fourth Quarter 2025 deliveries | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2026/Boeing-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Deliveries/default.aspx |
| ge-q2-2026 | GE Aerospace — Second Quarter 2026 results, 16 July 2026 | T2 · Primary filing / official body | https://www.geaerospace.com/news/press-releases/ge-aerospace-announces-second-quarter-2026-results |
| fi-jul-2026 | Forecast International Flight Plan — Airbus and Boeing July 2026 orders and deliveries |  | https://flightplan.forecastinternational.com/2026/08/11/airbus-and-boeing-report-july-2026-commercial-aircraft-orders-and-deliveries/ |
| fi-jun-2026 | Forecast International Flight Plan — Airbus and Boeing June 2026 orders and deliveries |  | https://flightplan.forecastinternational.com/2026/07/14/airbus-and-boeing-report-june-2026-commercial-aircraft-orders-and-deliveries/ |
| agn-jul-2026 | Aerospace Global News — Airbus extends lead over Boeing in July orders and deliveries |  | https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/airbus-boeing-orders-deliveries-july-2026/ |
| aerotime-faa-42 | AeroTime — Boeing wins FAA approval to raise 737 MAX production rate |  | https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/boeing-faa-approval-737-max-production |
| airways-452 | Airways Magazine — Airbus has five months to deliver another 452 aircraft |  | https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/airbus-five-months-452-aircraft-deliveries |

## Caveats & what this index cannot answer

- Q1 2025 deliveries — not published in the releases used and deliberately not interpolated.
- Full-year segment operating margins — the FY2025 Global Services figure did not reconcile and all full-year segment margins were dropped.
- Whether or when the FAA will approve 52 a month. No date has been published.
- Revenue or margin per aircraft. Deliveries and segment revenue are given, but Boeing does not publish per-unit economics.
- Any Airbus comparison — deliberately out of scope; see /data/narrowbody-deliveries.
- Estimates and forward targets are labelled in the working dataset; never read a labelled estimate or forecast as a settled figure.
- This is an observational data index, not investment, legal, or medical advice.

## Data freshness & methodology

- **Last updated:** 2026-08-14
- **Data as of:** 2026-07
- **What changed most recently:** Q2 2026 was the strongest quarter of the recovery: 171 deliveries, $631m free cash flow, a record $715.3bn backlog, and the start of the 737 transition to 47 a month with the Everett North Line entering low-rate initial production in July. Defense, Space & Security moved to a (0.2)% margin in the same quarter.

**Methodology (as seeded):**

> This index answers one question: is Boeing’s recovery real, and where is
> it still not? It is built entirely from Boeing’s own quarterly releases
> plus one external source for the FAA rate-cap dates, and it deliberately
> contains no Airbus comparison — that is /data/narrowbody-deliveries.
> 
> BASIS. All cash-flow figures are free cash flow as Boeing defines it
> (non-GAAP: operating cash flow less capital expenditure). All margins are
> segment operating margin as reported. Backlog is total company backlog,
> not Commercial Airplanes alone. Deliveries are commercial aircraft only;
> Defense deliveries are excluded throughout.
> 
> DERIVED POINT — DISCLOSED. Q1 2025 free cash flow of $(2.3)bn is the
> only derived value in this index. It is H1 2025 free cash flow of
> $(2.5)bn less the Q2 2025 figure of $(0.2)bn, both published in the same
> release. Cross-check: the Q3 2025 release gives nine-month free cash
> flow of $(2.252)bn, which less the Q3 figure of +$238m returns H1 of
> $(2.490)bn — consistent with the stated $(2.5)bn to rounding. The
> derivation is written into the point’s value_basis.
> 
> OMITTED. Q1 2025 deliveries are not stated in the releases retrieved and
> are not derivable from a published nine-month total on the same basis.
> The quarter is absent from the delivery chart rather than interpolated.
> 
> CONFLICT — DROPPED, NOT SEEDED. The full-year 2025 release returned a
> Global Services operating margin that cannot be reconciled with the
> 18.1% quarterly figures on either side of it or with the segment’s
> history. It is treated as unreliable. Full-year segment margins are
> therefore omitted from this index entirely; only the two 2026 quarters,
> which are mutually consistent, are charted.
> 
> CAVEAT — 52 A MONTH IS A TARGET. The final bar of the rate-path chart is
> a stated next step with no published FAA approval and no announced date.
> It is labelled as a target in the subtitle and in the point’s
> value_basis. The 38 and 42 figures are regulatory caps; the 42 and 47
> figures are production rates Boeing reported. Caps and rates are not the
> same measure and the chart’s x-axis labels say which is which.
> 
> CAVEAT — PRODUCTION RATE IS NOT DELIVERY RATE. Boeing has been drawing
> down parked inventory over this period, so quarterly deliveries have at
> times exceeded the production rate. Do not read the rate chart as a
> delivery forecast.
> 
> CAVEAT — SEASONALITY. Boeing consumes cash in Q1 and generates it later
> in the year. The Q1 2026 outflow of $(1.5)bn is a seasonal pattern
> visible in 2025 as well, not necessarily a relapse. Equally, the
> positive quarters do not mean the annual figure has turned: full-year
> 2025 free cash flow was still $(1.9)bn against $(14.3)bn in 2024.
> 
> Compiled and verified 2026-08-14. Working sheet with every source
> passage: Topics_Content/data/batch-6_aerospace_2026-08-14.md

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_Free tier. The full row-level dataset and per-source detail live on the live page and in the working file. Canonical: <https://deepstoryresearch.com/data/boeing-recovery>. Deepstory Research · https://deepstoryresearch.com_